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Trump has edge over Biden in 5 battleground states, poll indicates
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/05/biden-trump-new-york-times-poll-00125409
The numbers painted a grim picture for the president.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/05/biden-trump-new-york-times-poll-00125409
The numbers painted a grim picture for the president.
How is it even possible that the choice between the coup attempting, fascist imbecile with nearly 100 felony charges against him, and the moderate, business-as-usual incumbent can even be in doubt?
Edit: forgot to mention his malignant narcissism
Fifty years spent destroying education and enriching the ruling class so they could afford to spread propaganda freely.
We're in deep shit.
Fox News and conservative talk radio. These people only watch and listen to it. They get no inputs from anywhere else.
It's possible because as a country, USA suffer a serious mental illness, causing a huge part of Americans to have a distorted view of reality, and consider sociopathy a virtue and a sign of strength and righteousness.
This is why they can't agree on basic things like gun control even for assault rifles, minorities are stripped of simple human rights, they don't have universal healthcare, and states are allowed to punish abortion as a crime, even when done legally.
Republicans and the Christian right are insane with control, and have gone full authoritarian.
Republicans automatically vote against their own interest because Sean Hannity tells them to, while Democrats must be constantly persuaded to vote for candidates who they perceive as being less than perfect.
while Democrats must be constantly persuaded to vote for candidates who they perceive as being less than perfect
I want to argue with you, but can't.
Democrats have basically done everything possible do discourage any enthousiasm in there base. Or campaigning on any issue. Even vs Trump you need more than "this is just an old DNC guy who won't do anything" to get party volunteers campaigning.
Seems like they've been campaigning pretty hard on abortion access. Not sure what else a party that covers moderate right and center with a few moderate lefts could all get excited about. Federal legalization of Marijuana might be popular enough.
I'd like to see more progressive campaigns but unfortunately it seems like the party needs everyone who isn't far right to have a chance of beating the christo-fascists. It seems so much harder to motivate voter turnout for Democrats. You can't just feed them anger, hate and fear, you have to convince them you're actually going to make things better.
I didn't want Biden but isn't that who the party voted for in the primary? I guess after Trump, a boring, return to normal sounded good to people and I haven't heard of anyone else running for the Democratic nomination that's even worth consideration. We had the anti-vaccine loon with zero experience, the congressman I'd never heard of who can't name anything he would do differently than Biden and was so incompetent he missed the filing deadline to be on the ballot in some states and the lady who also has no experience but seems like she believes in healing crystals. The whole party is a complicated mess but I still find it almost incomprehensible that there is a still a serious possibility of Trump being elected again.
primary elections aren't free and fail, as we were reminded in 2016 and 2020. we don't really have a choice on who becomes the nominee
Democrat PACs have also funded ads on behalf of the most insane Republican candidates with the hope that they'd be easier to beat if they get the nomination. Something like this happened with Hillary and Trump, they wanted him to get the nomination, what a laughingstock the Republicans would be in that case. The insane candidates get increased legitimacy this way, but Democrats want to be able to point to the opponent and call them an extremist, it's a legitimate strategy that has worked for them, but they don't or can't address the broader effect this is having over time.
The Democrats also tell this story that doesn't land with many voters now, like everything is actually okay and it's the Republicans who are to blame, or it's because people aren't comfortable enough to be authentically themselves or some bs. The general economic arrangements are actually fine, as long as people of different identities are distributed within them equally.
There's also for the first time in America's history an ideological consensus within each party, that's basically come about during the last 30 years. All the "checks and balances" the founders envisioned break in this scenario. A single faction/party can control all branches of government and do whatever they want. When Biden started in politics there were segregationist Democrats for instance, there wasn't this broad party identity that aligned behind a single shared view.
Then a lot of this condenses down in to the stupidest do-nothing argument that, "if you don't vote for Biden you're helping the fascists." It doesn't appreciate how voting is the bare minimum of political engagement and barely matters unless you're in a very specific location. So people spend all this time getting upset around the vote, and any complaints about Biden or Democrats is equated to helping the fascists. Don't talk about these problems because it will make Trump look good! Downward spiral thinking all the way.
Should Democrats be concerned about the possibility of Trump winning? Yes. Anyone who didn't learn from 2016 is an imbecile.
That said, polls a year before the election-and therefore a year before we plaster the airwaves with a billion $+ in advertising, before Trump is a convicted felon, aren't worth much. We also should have learned from the "RED WAVE!!1!" fantasies of 2022.
Just to add, there might be plenty of voters on the left that are willing to say "there's no way I'm voting for Biden" in a poll a year from the election.
When they get to the voting booth and see Biden or Trump, though, many will vote for Biden even if they need to hold their noses.
Now, if we're seeing these polls in September of next year, then I'll start getting worried.
I feel like that's what people thought in 2016 with Trump and Clinton. People need something to believe in, even if it's not much.
"I'm going to vote third party" is a common phrase this far out. Much fewer actually wind up voting third party.
That being said, we need to get rid of First Past The Post and go with Ranked Choice or Approval Voting to remove the spoiler effect.
I, personally, prefer Ranked Choice, but I think the public would understand Approval Voting more readily. It's basically similar to "liking" on social media. You "like" the politicians you would want to see in office. Whoever gets the most "likes" wins.
Either of those would be a big improvement. Totally unlikely, though. The status quo depends on the unrepresentative way of voting.
ranked-choice or any other alternative ballot scheme would confuse tf out of the american electorate. many are literally too stupid to grasp the concepts thanks to the tanking of the public education system the last few decades.
Yeah there’s even videos on YouTube that break it down really well and go in-depth while keeping it at a 5th grade reading level and under 3 minutes.
I could definitely see ranked-choice being intentionally over-complicated in writing if someone wanted to undermine it, but with enough people/sources sharing simple video resources on it, it’s a method that could be easily understood and adopted by the public.
the democratic party should abandon the "hold their noses" strategy because it doesn't work very well
We also should have learned from the “RED WAVE!!1!” fantasies of 2022.
This is an incredibly important point. Rupert knows why, but the media want you to believe that Trump is far more popular than he actually is. They are invested in the drama, which drives engagement. They should be focused on the fact that he's embroiled in a RIDICULOUS number of court cases and how no one should be taking him seriously as a function of that. If that was the message they were repeating 24/7, his polling would be at 25%.
"I'd rather shoot myself in the dick than let the damn Libruls do it to me"
— Those people
Little do they know, it's the people they're voting for who are going to do it to them.
Please no. The first time was fucking hell for my mental health. I lost friends and family members to his insane cult. Please don’t do this again :(
It's relevant to the efforts to promote an agenda, where to spend money, what voters are thinking about the race, and how the issues will shape up. A year is a long time, and a lot can happen in that time.
No. Public sentiment can change in a week. Just look at GW Bush and his popularity before and after 9/11.
The democratic party thought it wasn't relevant in 2015/2016. Turns out they were pretty damned wrong about that.
So yeah, I'd say it's very relevant.
Remember that polling only collects data from people who respond to polls. How many of you don't have landlines? How many of you don't answer your cell phone if it's from an unknown number?
The only poll that matters is the one where you cast your ballot. Participate in that one.
Edit: And you know that nobody would ever spoil a poll.
The results from PA’s midterm election will be more interesting. There’s a bunch of loonies trying to get on school boards and an anti-choicer running for state Supreme Court, so Dems may overperform.
I'm in IL, in a district which is in between suburban and rural. Last year the crazy fucks tried to take over our school board, too. Like there was a statewide effort entirely focused here. This was in an off-year minor election, and those tend to have very low turnout.
None of them were elected. The communication about these chucklefucks was strong, and it got enough sane people to go to the polls. If there's an organization in your area that does that kind of communication, go help them. It matters.
Well, I can tell you that I don't vote for loonies trying to on school boards or anti-choicers running for state Supreme Court.
Polling hasn't been restricted to land lines for a long time. The people who run polls for a living aren't idiots.
People guard their cell phone numbers a whole lot more than they did land line numbers, and even if the pollster is picking numbers at random, my very next sentence addresses that:
How many of you don't answer your cell phone if it's from an unknown number?
The polls of 3,662 registered voters were conducted by telephone using live operators
Think of the people you know who would actually answer a call from an unknown number and sit on the line with a stranger while they ask questions. Tell me some other things about them.
In 1000 years from now (if humanity survives that long, which is increasingly unrealistic), historians will look back on this time period and study it as the largest scale mass occurrence of Stockholm syndrome the world has ever ever seen.
The people supporting trump have somehow been convinced to fall in love with their oppressors. It's mind blowing to be witness to it.
Oh, just saw Sabby Sabs talked about this.
Swing states are leaning toward Trump this time around.
Looks like it is getting closer to a three way race, RFK Jr. is hitting above 20 pts. according to polls.
Independents support for RFK Jr. increased after leaving dems.
When Dr. West and RFK Jr. are included in the poll questions, the numbers move around also.
If you think West's heart is in the right place then your brain must be in the wrong place. West's a smart guy, and he knows exactly what he's doing.
I would have said that West was smart 6-9 months ago. But flirting with the dumpster fire that is the Progressive Party, then jumping into and then back out of the Green Party, and finally settling on being an independent with zero ballot access is a decision path that changed my mind about the practical nature of West's mind.
It's a state that politicians actually care about because it could go either way. For example, no Democrat will waste time in Florida. No Republican will waste time in California. But Georgia or Pennsylvania could go either way.
It's funny how Florida was a 50/50 state not very long ago and now it's the Republican equivalent of California (even moreso actually).
In November 2019, a year before the election, the NYT published a battleground poll showing Biden ahead of Trump in Florida...
all the boomers got old and retired there. no income tax + cheap land + no snow makes the state a compelling option
American presidential elections are carried out at the state level, and in almost all the states the winner in that state takes all of the state's electors (which are people, but you can think of them as points needed to win the overall election).
What the media and political junkies call a "battleground" or "swing" state are the states which are traditionally very close races or otherwise polling closely going into the election, making them hard to predict the outcome based on statistics.
It's entirely possible for Trump to win in Oregon or for Biden to win in Kentucky, but when you look at past and present statistics it's not very likely to happen either way.
Since America doesn't use the popular vote in presidential elections, only states that are nearly evenly divided matter. All other states votes are taken for granted.
Those polls are rigged, republicans ship over their people from neighboring states to falsefy those polls just like they faked the election in 2016.
A lot of these republicans carry numerous fake passports to skew these polls. Wouldn't be surprised if Trump is planing on stealing the next election with the backing of his Saudi and Russian friends.
Maybe Biden should follow through on any policy that people actually like instead of doing fuck all.
What do you expect him to do without the cooperation of the House, SCOTUS, Sinema and Manchin?
Did we forget about how Democrats had control of both houses of Congress when Biden was elected, yet still failed to accomplish anything significat?
And Manchin is still head of the energy committee, hes on appropriations and armed services too... If Democrats actually wanted to push back on his obstructionism they would have stripped his committee assignments. They haven't, making it obvious that they want to keep him around as the current rotating villain.
You mean Biden’s good friend? The one who blocked basically all of Biden’s so called agenda.
Biden didn’t want any of his own policy agenda to pass. And it didn’t. But now he’s saying oh I guess there’s nothing that could have been done.
There are plenty of things he could do and there are plenty of things he could talk about. He's doing some of the former (union stuff for example), though he could do more, and fuck all (positive) of the latter. We'll see how it plays out in the actual election but his PR is kinda ass right now.
Anything other than throw his hands up and give up. He is right of center politically though so he never will
Can you name some specific things? Genuinely curious what he has the authority to do that wouldn't be unpopular enough to get Trump elected again? Because if the guy who cares about the rule of law and presidential norms can do anything you can bet your ass the guys who don't will undo it.
Anything the President of the United States says is broadcast on media everywhere.
He hasn’t fought for anything. He still calls Manchen his good friend, while throwing his hands up and saying there’s nothing he can do?
Biden is basically a Republican
But…. Better than trump I guess? I’m not voting for neoliberals anymore. Nor will I support a president who supports the apartheid government of Israel even as it commits ongoing genocide
You haven't been paying attention. Just the fact that the signed a bill to make the gov negotiate drug prices is massive! Dems have been trying to do that for 30 years...
Remember when he knocked down gas prices conservatives were complaining about?
The list goes on. I don't even like Biden but your implication is simply wrong here.
I call bullshit.
Most of that small list of drugs were already scheduled to go generic before the bill is put in to effect.
You don’t know what you’re talking about.
Like the infrastructure bill that Trump and presidents before him harped on for years and never delivered on?
You mean the corporate infrastructure bill that will privatize more public infrastructure?