Oh I apologise I forget sometimes everyone here isn't a marxist now after the reddit waves, marxists would just pick up the intention from context and keeping up with news via parties and groups they're in. The "they" here is generally western aligned think tanks and forces. In particular the Atlantic Council which is largely responsible for a lot of US policy has been pushing it around in the media recently.
And how in the world do you get from here to there? Because all i see now is a fractured and demoralized military that’s lost all momentum, a weakened Putin, a shocked Russian public, and Prigozian and Lukashenko (and who knows who else) lurking in the wings. A lot has already changed, and uncertainty abounds.
A marxist understanding of the war in Ukraine is as a war that was created by the west, led by the US, that benefits quite a significant number of MIC forces with large influence over US policy. Part of the narrative that maintains support for the war is the ongoing belief that Russia can be defeated, and the method of Russian defeated that has been drummed up is "Russia will collapse" as everyone with any sense can see that there is no military means of victory. If the "Russia will collapse" narrative is destroyed by the reality of a rebellion demonstrating massive support that makes any collapse obviously impossible then the entire house of cards that has been constructed falls down. Thus the result is pushing in the media the notion that it wasn't a real rebellion but instead a grand scheme by devious clever russians.
If you have questions about how the left interprets the war I'm happy to answer.