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Capitalism and extreme poverty: A global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century

ScienceDirect

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X22002169#b0670

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I really hate when people don't summarize articles.

Here's an AI summary by Claude:

The standard narrative that global extreme poverty declined with the rise of capitalism is flawed; the empirical evidence indicates the rise of capitalism initially caused immiseration across much of the world, and substantial progress against extreme poverty only occurred centuries later, often correlating with progressive social movements rather than capitalism itself. As hundreds of millions still live in extreme poverty today, capitalism has failed to deliver universal progress against poverty.

So, here's an AI outline:

The Standard Public Narrative on Global Poverty and Capitalism

The standard public narrative holds that:
- Extreme poverty is the natural condition of humanity
- Around 90% of people lived in extreme poverty before the 1800s
- Global poverty only began declining with the rise of capitalism in the 19th century

Problems with the Evidence Supporting this Narrative

The narrative relies heavily on a graph first created by Martin Ravallion, later popularized by Steven Pinker
- The graph suggests 90% of people lived in extreme poverty (<$1.90/day) before 1800
But the graph has several problems:
- Mixes two inconsistent data sources:
  - National Accounts Statistics (NAS) before 1980
  - Household consumption surveys after 1980
- NAS do not account well for non-commodity forms of provisioning like subsistence farming and commons, which were important historically
- Using NAS to estimate historical poverty introduces errors, as growth in NAS does not necessarily reflect growth in household incomes
The $1.90/day poverty line also has problems:
- Based on overall prices in the economy, not prices of essential goods
- So it may change what is considered "poverty" over time
The graph starts in 1820, missing previous centuries of capitalist history and primitive accumulation
Robert Allen provides alternative poverty estimates suggesting:
- England had low poverty rates even during feudalism
- India's poverty around 1600 may have been only 5-10%
- Indian poverty rose under British colonialism

Three Issues with the Standard Narrative

Extreme poverty does not seem to be the natural state for humanity
- Historical real wages often allowed survival above $1.90/day
Rise of capitalism initially caused immiseration, not progress
- Incorporation into capitalist system associated with:
  - Declines in real wages
  - Deterioration in heights
  - Increases in mortality
Progress occurred centuries after rise of capitalism
- In Europe's core, only from 1880s
- In periphery, only from mid-20th century

Analysis of Real Wages, Heights, and Mortality Since 1500s

Examines trends in 5 regions: Europe, Latin America, Africa, South Asia, China
Europe
- Real wages
  - Allowed survival above extreme poverty line for centuries
  - Declined with rise of capitalism in 16th century
  - Only improved from 1880s
- Heights
  - Declined from 16th to 19th century
  - Recovered in 20th century
- Mortality
  - Famines increased under early capitalism
Latin America
- Real wages
  - Not in extreme poverty except during catastrophes
  - Declined with colonialism in 18th century
  - Recovered in mid-20th century
- Heights
  - Declined in 18th century
  - Recovered mid-20th century
- Mortality
  - Genocide and collapse after conquest
  - Possibly rise in mortality in late 19th century
Africa
- Real wages
  - Above poverty line in 18th century
  - Declined with slave trade and colonialism
  - Recovered mid-20th century
- Heights
  - Decline under colonialism
  - Still not recovered in many countries
- Mortality
  - Increased under colonialism
South Asia
- Real wages
  - Above poverty line before colonialism
  - Declined under British rule
  - Little recovery
- Heights
  - Decline under colonialism
  - Little recovery except in Sri Lanka
- Mortality
  - Marked increase under British rule
China
- Real wages
  - Decline after Opium Wars
  - Recovered under communism in 20th century
- Heights
  - Decline after Opium Wars
  - Recovery under communism
- Mortality
  - Increase after Opium Wars
  - Rapid progress under communism

Conclusions

Extreme poverty does not seem to be natural state
Rise of capitalism caused immiseration, not progress against poverty
Progress occurred centuries after rise of capitalism
Where progress occurred, it correlated with progressive social movements and public provisioning, not capitalism
Capitalism has failed to deliver universal progress against extreme poverty
Hundreds of millions still live in conditions akin to worst periods of history