https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.
Nice to see a counter to the gloomy doom posts.
Like so many things in life, wars often go slowly at first and then all at once at the end.
Yeah, though I'd point out that while cutting the land bridge would be a huge strategic win for Ukraine, it probably won't end the war.
I'd expect the next step is, if Russia even intends to try to hold it after the land bridge is cut, retaking eastern Kherson Oblast, maybe cutting Russia's supply lines off of Crimea.
Someone who has more-familiarity than me could probably tell whether Russia intends to try to defend eastern Kherson Oblast from the maps of Russia's fortification placement that people have found with satellite imagery. There are fortifications along the M14 highway, but they look to only be on the highway, so I don't know if those are just there to control the road or if Russia would actually try to hold north-west lines there.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnHuyYjWQAAxJ0d.jpg
They might just abandon it. Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines here, and much more-secure supply lines than Russia. And Russia is going to be at serious risk of being cut off, and the area is within range of long-range Ukrainian precision weapons.
I'd expect the next step to be isolating Crimea, which means cutting the Kerch Strait Bridge and destroying shipping with USVs or anti-ship missiles. That at least shouldn't be too costly in terms of lives for Ukraine -- it's a materiel-heavy effort.
And the last step is western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and LDNR. I don't know what the plan is there. If Russia wants to keep fighting for that, I'd imagine that it'd be hard to cut them off from it. And if Russia decided to do so, they could keep lobbing things over the border, even in the scenario where they were forced back.
