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Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Nature Communications

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Nature Communications

2 comments

Bread

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What I’m getting from this is that the AMOC at some point as it loses stability is going to pop quickly from its current state into another stable state. That as opposed to it just slowly declining forever. Because of this the pop might catch us off guard.

Let me know if you have a different interpretation. It’s not the densest science, but it’s still pretty dense for me.

Mana

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Yeah I think the concept is that it just gets diluted by melting ice caps until it is essentially stopped. Surprisingly I haven't found anything about plankton and ecological disaster from food web collapse alongside the AMOC.