https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/19/polling-harris-trump-pennsylvania-debate/
The state’s closely watched Senate race shows a similarly tight contest, and 93 percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote.
Just one poll though, I ran the numbers just yesterday, in PA, there's one showing Trump with a small lead, one showing a tie, and multiple showing Harris leading +3 to +6.
I think it's safe to say the tie and Trump polls are outliers.
Arizona: Toss Up, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +5, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia: Trump +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina: Toss Up, Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania: Harris +3, +5, +6, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Harris +1, +3, +5, Tie, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +4, +5, +7, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Overall, Harris looks a lot stronger than last week. Even losing Georgia, clawing back PA from Trump and moving Wisconsin fron toss-up to Harris gives her EXACTLY 270.
On the map:
I think this is the first time since Biden dropped out that any candidate has hit the magic 270 number.
I'd be interested to see what polls say about NC with the Robinson stuff by next week
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