The new Moon race: Assessing Chinese and US strategies
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https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4846/1
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4846/1
I won't be surprised if Chinese astronauts reach the Moon before American ones return to it. Boeing's SLS seems to go from bad to worse, and SpaceX's Starliner is nowhere near ready to completely replace it.
SpaceX's Starliner
I assume you meant SpaceX's Starship? Starliner is also Boeing.
In any case, your points still stand. I think Artemis still has a good chance of beating China to the lunar surface, but it could be a close race.