https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html?unlocked_article_code=1.A04.l8tT.vVux0eicUc7N
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
Wait until they unleash the Power of Tim.
Edit:
OMG He brought up the JD couch fucking thing 🤣 🤣
This is good news, but we cannot get complacent! Plan to vote! And if you are really motivated, try to convince at least one other person to vote!
For those in Minnesota... if you register (re-register? whatever. its the same process), you can sign up to have them automatically send your ballots to you every time there's a relevant election. it's a very-low-key tick box in the process.
it takes five minutes. and it's super easy.
For everyone else, you can get directions on how to confirm your registration here. I would suggest checking now, before you find out that certain groups of asshats tried to have you removed for some strange reason...
Here are the FiveThirtyEight polling averages this morning:
National: Harris +2
Michigan: Harris +2.1
Wisconsin: Harris +1.6
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.1
Nevada: Harris +0.3
Georgia: Trump +0.7
North Carolina: Trump +1.0
Arizona: Trump +1.9
This train is just getting started, too.
Tune into Philly right now.
The crowd is absolutely LOUD!
Like rock concert loud.
Yep. The fuckwitted GOP and their MSM lackeys boned it by constantly attacking Biden's age. He did the thing that they'd find unthinkable when he bowed out. Now they've unleashed the blue wave they've been fearing all along.
Pennsylvania is +1.1 to Harris? That's crazy, it was Trump +4 like a week ago.
These are the numbers that really matter. I’m actually holding out a little hope that we could turn Texas blue soon, but I’d ask that the Democrat campaign not come here with too much heat, as there are better strategies to win more seats and the presidency.
It’s really sad that this is where we are now. She shouldn’t just be “ahead” of him- he shouldn’t even be an option. That there are people ignorant enough to even consider that traitorous criminals a candidate speaks volumes of how broken America is politically. And remember:
VOTE AS IF POLLS DON’T EXIST.
The ONLY thing that matters is the electoral college, and whereas the numbers are moving in the right direction, there is still a LOT of work to do to secure the future of America. VOTE. TAKE YOUR FRIENDS. ASK THEM IF THEY ARE REGISTERED.
Real clear politics still has trump with 297 electoral votes. Long way to go. I certainly like how things have been trending lately though.
Am I missing something? I just checked and it seems like it is currently showing:
Harris 208
Toss Ups 111
Trump/Vance 219
I don't believe RCP tries to judge pollsters accuracy at all, they just throw it into an average and call it done. So they get flooded by bad rightwing polls and end up saying Republicans are winning while places like 538 say the opposite. The NYT polling averages someone else posted have Harris up in NV, WI, and PA, which flips the race.
Yep. Need PA and either AZ or WI to make it work. As Much as RCP doesn’t always show the numbers I personally want, it does seem to have accurate polling.
This poll tracking is showing Harris barely ahead on national polls. This millennium, Republicans have won the presidency in 2000, 2004, and 2016.
In 2000 and 2016, the Democratic candidate won the popular vote.
Winning the popular vote doesn’t mean shit. The electoral college is what matters.
That same NYT poll link lists 9 tossup states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, and Virginia.
You’ll notice all but the first three are in alphabetical order. That’s because all but the first three don’t have enough polling to make a prediction. Of those first three: a statistical tie in Wisconsin and Michigan with a Trump lead in Pennsylvania.
If you include Kennedy, Harris is ahead by 1% in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but still tied in Michigan.
National polling trends are going in the direction I want, but they really don’t matter.
I write this from a state whose electoral college votes have never gone for a Democrat in my lifetime and won’t ever before my death. I’ll be voting for Harris, but that vote is one of those national votes that won’t actually help my preferred candidate.
The only way I can help is via monetary donation.
And if you’re a Harris voter in a solidly blue state, your vote means as much fuck all as mine does. Yes, it actually makes it to the electoral college, but, like mine, that’s a forgone conclusion. You should be donating money too and hoping it’s used wisely to affect those swing states.
Abortion protections passed in several red states. If everyone votes, you might catch em sleeping.
You’ll notice all but the first three are in alphabetical order. That’s because all but the first three don’t have enough polling to make a prediction.
exactly. but in spite of it being so soon that there isn't enough data in some of the states, she already deleted quite big gap she had, so hopefully the trend will continue and will bring some results in states where it matters.
That’s my hope. Still from where I live I can only hope my specie contributions are used to affect that.
Popular vote does tend to correlate with swing state results as elections are pretty nationalised these days. It's just too close at the moment to make a prediction either way (and 2016 was too close to call as well, despite the rhetoric at the time).
If she gets to a 10+ national lead I'd start to feel comfortable. Less that that, and it's a tossup (although a smaller margin starts to become significant closer to the election).
Anyway, vote no matter where you live. If nothing else but to build the habit so it becomes something you don't have to think about.
I'm rewatching the Pennsylvania speeches...it's like seeing a cancer patient slowly start to beat cancer...there is hope. I wish our politicians in Europe were able to kick this much butt against far-right populists.
::: spoiler New York Times - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report) Information for New York Times:
MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source
:::
::: spoiler Search topics on Ground.News https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html?unlocked_article_code=1.A04.l8tT.vVux0eicUc7N ::: Media Bias Fact Check | bot support
