https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-says-election-is-now-a-toss-up-as-harris-takes-polling-lead?ref=home?ref=home
Harris has now taken a slight lead against Trump ahead of the presidential election in November, according to data published by Silver’s Substack on Sunday.
Actually, Silver says it’s basically a toss up.
Turn out, bring your friends, and if you see some voter suppression bullshit, call it out.
None of us should ever take these seriously. We need to encourage people to vote as though our lives depend on it (because, in some ways, they do)
I'm hoping they need literal years to get their machine oriented on her. People forget Fox news worked on Clinton for 24 years before she ran for President.
oh I'm sure they'll find an email server, laptop, or some other bullshit to whine about.
I thought everyone hated and didnt trust Nate Silver? Or was that because of cult of personality politics?
Well I’m sure the trans people who would be forced to detransition, the climate refugees forced to flee their homes, the women forced into dangerous pregnancies, the Palestinians who will receive even less support from the US, and the people of Ukraine forced to live under Russian occupation without our support will obviously agree that it’s most important for you to have a clear conscience here.
Nice cherry picked hyperbole list you got there. Too bad your party leaders don't give a fuck about those things either.
Hyperbole list? Every one of these things is a stated objective of the trump campaign or is literally already happening.
If you truly can’t see daylight between the republicans and the democrats, you need to:
Hate to break this to you, but it's pretty much guaranteed one of those two options will win. The voting system sucks but it is what we have.
Okay, still not voting for either one of them. If people would refuse to keep participating in their own subjugation, shit might change
Bad news, buddy: you won't have to participate in your own subjugation. You will be subjugated, whether you choose to be or not.
The idea that you can change the system by not voting just means that you're going to be irrelevant to whoever does win.
One side is doing insurrections, promising to be a dictator, promising that this year will be the last vote. "Better throw my ballot in the garbage in exchange for zero EC votes."
His politics have moved to the right but I haven’t seen any evidence it’s affecting his predictions yet. We’ll see.
If his predictions start landing consistently to the right of reality then that's just another data point. The modelling world is fun like that.
He's wrong very frequently. He had a couple amazing parlays and people think he has some special sauce.
People who say this don't ever really back this up. Nate Silver has pretty consistently maintained >90% accuracy across not just presidential races but primaries, gubernatorial, and congressional races. Ultimately thousands of races. Remember, he his probability != a prediction. Just because someone has 70-30 odds doesn't mean they win 100% of the time. It means if that race was run 100,000 times, 30,000 times would be a loss. Accuracy can be determined by grouping a sample of such 70-30 races to see if they follow that trend. Lo and behold, Nate's algorithm generally does.
Obviously events change and predictions cannot rapidly factor in, say, Comey's October Surprise...but in this era of absurdity, I'm not sure we really have any more shocking surprises that can top what we've already seen and know.
These are good markers to see how messaging and strategy for each side is working and whether a change needs to happen. It should have zero bearing on voting which everyone should do whether you're winning in a landslide or not.
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