Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
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https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/
The only certain thing is nobody knows who will be elected until after the polls close and counting is certified.
VOTE. Everyone vote as if yours is the only one that matters, because it may be.
100% agree. Polls also don't really account for voter suppression tactics, or gerrymandering and other GOP fuckery, so absolutely vote because our democracy is literally at stake here.
Our future generations will be impacted by the outcome of this specific election.
I tend to wonder how these polls are conducted and who is answering them? Does anyone get polls via email or text? Are they still just calling people? I’m in my 40s and basically no one I know my age or younger answers numbers they don’t know anymore, and texts are ignored or flat out blocked because if you respond, they barrage you later, or at least that’s what we all assume.
So I’m not convinced polls have any bearing on what will happen anymore. VOTE!
Yes
Different polls with different methods.
Many call people, some online polls (using advertising with demographic targeting), some emails to various news list subscribers, some in person polling, etc. It's definitely harder these days to get accurate numbers because fewer responders means self imposed selection bias by those answering, which can correlate to the answers you get in unpredictable ways.
To be fair, your vote statistically doesn’t matter in some states. I’ll make a bet with somebody that if I don’t vote in my state it won’t change anything.
Dems really phoned this one in.
There's plenty of downticket races that potentially directly affect your life more that matter.
I don’t vote in my state it won’t change anything
Wrong, wrong and wrong.
Your vote matters down-ballot. Your vote matters for a mandate. Your vote matters because you will pay attention.
The trick is to get people to feel the way you do so they can rule you.
You wanna make a bet? If I don’t vote, my state will still vote Harris.
The trick is actually to trick people like you into thinking they have control when they actually don’t.
I would argue that even if your state is guaranteed to go one way or the other (aside from down ballot races which are obviously very important) there’s still value in voting for president, if only to illustrate the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college. The higher we run up the margins, the more it makes it obvious to everyone that we need to ditch the electoral college.
Federal, maybe, but it’s still important to vote for down ticket races, and your presidential vote can at least be a statistic toward the popular vote count. I get what you mean though, I’m from a consistently blue state.
Better 2-pts up with Harris than 3-pts down with Biden. I like the direction those polls are swinging, even if I wouldn't put money on an outcome.
Other polls I had seen just yesterday (likely collected before Biden dropping out was a reality) still had Trump with a 1% or more lead over Harris, so they're really all over the place and I wouldn't trust them for much, even up to and including election day. I'm not breathing a sigh of relief until victory is declared, and even then, I wouldn't be so sure.
This is a swing and she's only beginning to build momentum. Let's hope things keep moving in the right direction.
According to the article it's within the margin of error, so Trump may have more votes.
Polls are garbage.
The mainstream professional polls have been reliable for some time. They typically get within 2-3pt margin of error when taken a few days before the election, and they serve as a useful bellweather to track public sentiment. In this case, it appears jettisoning Biden is bringing voters back to the Dem fold. That's what Dems were banking on, and I'd consider it a good thing given how much I don't want Trump to be President.
Vote like they don’t exist.
People who obsessively follow polling are the ones most likely to vote.
Stepping aside may honestly be the single greatest show of leadership Biden has done in his lifetime. If the polls are swinging, it's as much due to him making such a historical and respectable move as it is people surprised and refreshed by Kamala Harris.
Polls were historically accurate in 2022 and generally do a good job of measuring the temperature. Still, vote like they don't exist.
Exactly. If polls didn't matter, Biden would still be running for president. With that being said: vote.
By not being USian, or living in the USA?
My country only protects free-speech as long as it's not anonymous.
I usually didn't assume people's nationality, but I thought it was pretty safe in a thread about US politics.
Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone's vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone's vote in Alaska.
Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.
And my vote in Oklahoma.....oh fuck it who are we kidding lol. Meaningless. I still do it though.
In a similar situation. Theres a zero percent chance trump doesn't win my state by at least 10 points. Still gonna vote though.
He'll see the popular vote count and it will annoy him. He was mad about it even when he won!
Well yeah, that would be a disappointment to anyone, he lost in a popularity contest by 3 million votes to Hillary fucking Clinton. He absolutely deserves to feel bad about it and I hope he remembers every day that he wouldn’t have won if it weren’t for the electoral college.
Both of you should be asking how your vote could be made meaningful outside the scope of your current evaluation.
This sub hates the following message. That's why it comes today instead of yesterday.
Focus on loyalty to ideology, not party affiliation. Left ideology has been most consistently expressed by the Green Party platform (Sanders watered it down, twice). They've lots of problems. But, they're incredibly loyal to the platform.
If the Green Party gets 5% of the general election vote then they'll be on every ballot in '28. The Democrats can't silence the platform choice in primaries as they did twice to Sanders. This would place an incredible amount of pressure on Democrats immediately and be passively sustained for four years.
In a purple state I'd vote Democrat POTUS for harm reduction. In a blue state it'd depend on the situation. But, in a red state, I risk absolutely nothing by not for voting harm reduction.
We're the only ones completely free to act for the long term. The blue wave thinks we're too stupid to understand nuance. Political parties don't deserve your loyalty. We need be loyal to each other, especially when we're hated for our choices.
Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation. With Tulsa and Oklahoma city it's more progressive than most people realize. We've just got to get out and vote and convince those around us to do the same. I know we have the numbers to win local elections.
•
Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation.
Probably because you're not allowed to vote if someone from your party isn't running. We have a county sheriff race that was just decided by drawing a name out of a hat. Dems didn't get a vote.
Lots of downticket races can be swung by a popular presidential nominee.
That said, Oklahoma's awash in O&G money and its state bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt. At some point, the sheer volume of gerrymandering, vote caging, and criminal disenfranchisement needs to be addressed. Simply shouting at people to "GO VOTE!" when they're getting handed broken machines and defective butterfly ballots and threatening robocalls isn't helping anyone, least of all the candidates they're hoping will win.
Good for you. It may not mean anything for national elections but it could make a difference in a local one
This sub hates the following message. That's why it comes today instead of yesterday.
Focus on loyalty to ideology, not party affiliation. Left ideology has been most consistently expressed by the Green Party platform (Sanders watered it down, twice). They've lots of problems. But, they're incredibly loyal to the platform.
If the Green Party gets 5% of the general election vote then they'll be on every ballot in '28. The Democrats can't silence the platform choice in primaries as they did twice to Sanders. This would place an incredible amount of pressure on Democrats immediately and be passively sustained for four years.
In a purple state I'd vote Democrat POTUS for harm reduction. In a blue state it'd depend on the nuance of the situation. But, in a red state, I risk absolutely nothing by not for voting harm reduction.
We're the only ones completely free to act for the long term. The blue wave thinks we're too stupid to understand nuance. Political parties don't deserve your loyalty. We need be loyal to each other, especially when we're hated for our choices.
There is no way the greens can get to 270. You're suggesting progressives split the Dem vote.
This is a sure way to lose for Dems and progressives.
The way to move the party left is with money and primaries not the general election.
I know the top comments in these subs is always something along the lines of “fuck the polls! Go vote!” I agree but damn it is nice to get some positive news now and then!
As with all the discussions on national polls, it's necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don't have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don't reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don't have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I've looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - No data for Harris.
Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.
As of right now though? Here's the map:
Those polls don't account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off
this is the bottom
What does that even mean? You sure spent a lot of energy spreading completely useless and out of date information.
It's what we have and it's Harris' starting point.
Where she goes from here? 🤷♂️ But if we don't track what we have NOW, we won't be able to see how she improves (or doesn't) a week from now, a month from now, or two months from now.
When we get another "national polling suggests..." article in October, it will be interesting to re-run the stats and compare them to this. They should be VASTLY different.
But what makes it interesting is the progress she makes between now and then.
So ESPN favors trump is what you are saying. That site is owned by them. Always look at the bias.
They're aggregating polls with a public methodology. Just because an organization exists doesn't mean it is pushing a bias in everything it does. If you're going to claim a bias point it out, say what they are doing to bias the results, you can't infer it from results.
You can't get anything unbiased if the site is owned by a huge corporation. You can get that fantasy out of your head. That site is nothing but polls by disney.
But it's polls by everyone.
And yes you CAN get unbiased information from a huge corporation. Do you have a weather app? Book publishers are corporations, are Earth Science textbooks biased for one political candidate?
I'm not saying they CANT be biased, I'm saying you do need literally any evidence before just asserting that they are.
They are biased not because the aggregate but because they limit reviews. Who uses them? People who can form their own opinions of what they like.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if all or almost all major news outlets have some bias towards Trump from up top since they all are the basically the same people.
Entertainment news is pretty much all we have left. All of them are geared toward getting views and ratings. I have zero trust these days. I'm hardly ever surprised when some new corruption comes out and how quickly it disappears behind a cacophony of crap that doesn't matter to me in the least. When people constantly stand on poll data that in my 53 years I've never been asked to participate in any poll. I'm pretty sure I am in no way unique so I figure polls are targeted for a result and I'm not a part of the process. I'm just supposed to be a consumer.
i'm going to need so much popcorn to watch GOP squirming and flailing desperate to find something to attack LOL
she's too OLD!!!
hunter's laptop!!!
buttery males!!!
LOL
eat shit, republicans
There will be quite a few Muslim allegations as well, for reasons. Which is funny, considering she has history with nearly everything besides Islam.
Oh yeah, probably. Has the GOP ever really sorted out their racist talking points about Indians (from India, not Native Americans)?
Considering the complete lack of backlash against the commentators who disparaged Vivek this year, they’ve definitely got a handle on it.
Oh, some of them are certain to be confused and make racist comments about Native Americans too.
From a Politico article, we can see how the Russians are starting to talk about Harris. The Republicans aren't usually far behind...
“Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade,” Andrei Sidorov, the dean of the global politics department at Moscow State University (a once highly respected institution) said Sunday evening on state television’s prime weekly talk show.
Edit: and then there's this: Unhinged Republican candidate calls Kamala Harris a “little wh*re” as GOP descends into misogyny
It's been a delight watching them flail uselessly. They knew they might have Harris as an opponent from the instant someone as old as Biden selected her for VP. They've had all this time to do oppo research and focus group what is likely to stick.
All their arguments against Biden evaporated into nothingness the instant he bowed out and they are completely unprepared to run against Harris.
They counted on Biden being a stubborn idiot and staying in the race and didn't have a backup plan.
Popularity I'm afraid.
Other polls that factor in additional considerations essentially have them neck-and-neck right now, maybe a 1 or 2% lead for Trump.
Fucking electoral college...
Yeah I want to know specifically about say Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, etc. I know Harris will win all along the coasts. But that's only 175 of 270.
Yeah this is always the thing people forget... we have this antiquated electoral college thing.
That's good news but still too close. We all need to continue informing the public that Donald is a dementia-ridden geriatric physically and mentally unfit for the office.
Her polls before Biden did the right thing were lower. She has upward momentum. Biden had downward momentum.
1.) POLLS ARE GARBAGE.
2.) Corporate news cannot run a horse race without polls
3.) See #1
Polls mean nothing, the trends on polls aren’t guaranteed if people get complacent and don’t turn out. Voter apathy is the worst thing that can happen to Dems in this election
Project 2025 mentions Trump's name 300 times. Officials from his administration were involved in writing it. It's a plan to replace public servants with "Trump loyalist" - which Trump calls "destroying the deep state" but is actually know as "Unitary Executive Theory", aka a dictatorship.
In 2018, The Heritage Foundation said on their website, that two-thirds of the previous "Mandate for Leadership" they wrote for Trump had been passed into law. They're a big part of how the GOP sets policy when in office, dating back to the Reagan era.
Oh cool a national poll, I’m sure this’ll be super relevant to a race decided on the state level.
Biden's our best bet, they said.
Everyone else polls worse, they said.
They were and remain full of shit.
Most of us have told you tons of fucking times that we didn’t care who they ran, we were voting AGAINST Trump, not FOR Biden.
Why do always make shit up? Are you THAT desperate to be right about anything?
Well, maybe your aren’t right about something, but you finally got your way- we’re not voting for Biden now.
Only, we’re not not voting. So…. I guess you don’t really get your way. Do you?
Most of us have told you tons of fucking times that we didn’t care who they ran, we were voting AGAINST Trump, not FOR Biden.
And now that you have the opportunity to vote for someone who can actually beat Trump, you're angry.
Why do always make shit up?
If you haven't noticed people on lemmy who were insisting that it had to be Biden because no one else could exceed his polling, you haven't been on lemmy for a while.
Only, we’re not not voting. So…. I guess you don’t really get your way. Do you?
Check my comment history. I'm overjoyed that we have a better candidate now. Seems like the party is with me.
Of course, you're not. Try to avoid the urge to write in Bidenyahu.
The party listened to people like me who wanted Biden to step down. They ignored the calls to maintain an untenable status quo from people who swore there would be chaos immediately upon Biden quitting the race.
The results speak for themselves. There's genuine excitement behind Harris that wasn't there for Biden. There's hope again.
I said people like me. In case you missed it, people who wanted Biden to step down were abundant.
We were also right, as events have indicated.
This. You can't forget what their plan was. They changed course somewhat, but Kamala is the never-Trump candidate. I expect her to do better than Biden, but they are still full of shit.