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Poll predicts Tories lose Opposition Status

New poll shows Tories heading for election wipeout - with Lib Dems overtaking them

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-general-election-2024-poll-projection-seats-wipeout-b2555671.html

Redfield and Wilton’s poll of 10,000 voters suggests that the Conservatives will suffer “catastrophic” losses

New poll shows Tories heading for election wipeout - with Lib Dems overtaking them

Yesterday I was pointing out how little effort this would take based on polling. And today a new poll puts electoral calculuses tory seat prediction from 66 to 27.

While it is an early poll.

Honestly if we saw a higher young voter turn out all votiing tactically. A complete distruction of the Tories party is possible.

Imagin an opposition party challenging labours view on FPTP. This would be a real once in a life time change to the old aristocratic power structure.

24 comments

HowManyNimons

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It genuinely could happen, but we have to get the word out and all vote tactically. I would definitely hold my nose and vote Lib dem if it could push the Tories into third or fourth place!

13esq

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In fptp, only tactical votes matter.

I'd love to be able to vote with my heart, but getting the Tories out is far more important.

HumanPenguin

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I am in a seat they are predicted to win.

Electoral calculus had (yesterday) 53 seats they called Lib Dem medium. Where they were within 10% of beating the tories as the 2nd largest party. These will be where we need more nose holding.

As with 53 close loses they were predicting 66 tory MPs and 59 Lib Dem

HowManyNimons

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Farage standing is going to make it worse for the Tories: it will raise Reform's profile and split the right wing vote worse. Electoral calculus just changed again.

Emperor

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Yeah, it's going to take a few days for the impact of that to filter through and it isn't going to make things look better for the Tories.

HumanPenguin

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Please please stop. Come on think what this means. No one at all in the UK or even the universe. What's to consciously know they need to thank Nigel Farrarge for there post July 4th orgasm.

coolboole

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HumanPenguin

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if we can beat the poll by 27 seats on 4th of July. Film the explosion. Pretty sure you could make money on only fans.

frankPodmore

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Imagin an opposition party challenging labours view on FPTP. This would be a real once in a life time change to the old aristocratic power structure.

The really odd thing is that in this scenario, the Lib Dems would come fourth in vote share, behind Reform, but second in terms of seats, which might have an interesting impact on their view of PR!

HumanPenguin

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Having supported STV since the late 1970 (that I remember maybe longer)

Any power gained under FPTP will be clearly seen as easy to lose. More so as the party really remembers what 2010 did to there support.

But maybe recent polling is giving me delusions of positivity.

mannycalavera

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Imagin an opposition party challenging labours view on FPTP.

Oh I can tell you right now what their position is. Imagine this in a nasal clipped tone:

Now is not the time to think about such things. Our country is hurting from fourteen years of Tory government and we're getting on with the job of improving the country for everyone whilst supporting our NHS. As such I'm announcing all nurses uniforms are to be made tax free.

frankPodmore

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Uncanny. It's like he's in the room with me.

Rogue

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That caused me actual pain. I almost downvoted you out of sheer rage

Emperor

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Yes, the initial polling has been pretty static, but with Farage standing and leading Reform, things are looking very bad for the Tories and I expect the polling to really start looking very grim indeed.

Honestly if we saw a higher young voter turn out all votiing tactically. A complete distruction of the Tories party is possible.

I'm looking forward to it 🍿. Never underestimate a mixture of spite and devilment that could see younger voters come out to stick it to a party that has done them so much harm.

Jackthelad

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There is no chance of this happening. These figures come from Electoral Calculus, which should be taken with an ocean of salt.

HumanPenguin

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The chance of it happening depend entirly on voters desire to make it happen.

So comments like this are at best worthless. At worst designed to limit the actions of voter cooperation.

My statement has always been. That young voters increasing turn out and agreeing to tactical voting to achive this. Would make it a possibility.

Stating something has no chance. When their is a clear path to its possibility. Is at best over confiden at worst intentional voter manipulation.

At a minimum over the last 50 years 30% of eligible voters do not vote. Those voters can very much change the results of any election we ever had. To any outcome they agree on.

So the whole point of discussion like this on social media. Is to convince voters they are able to change things. Even under our crap fptp system.

eestileib

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Cameron, Truss, and Sunak really are murderer's row of party leaders.

Unfortunately for the tories, they are mostly murdering the prosperity of their own country and the seats of their party compatriots.

wewbull

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Don't forget "Strong and Stable" May and BoJo the Clown.

david

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Don't you wish we'd chosen chaos with Ed Milliband instead of the Conservative's Long Term Economic Plan?

shasta

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Then they gain allied status?

HumanPenguin

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Backbench status only.

Our system has a government party with members of cabinate plus ministers. An official opposition with shadow minister roles. That has a few extra folks amd official PM question time roles. Then every other party is just back bench MPs with no other role.

shasta

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So opposition means second largest party?

HumanPenguin

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Yes the 2nd largest party is called the HM Official opposition. Technically all non gov party mps are opposition MPs. But the leader of the 2nd largest party has the tittle Leader of His Majesties Official Opposition.

It means the party leader has a few extra privileges in parliament. They have the role of their leadership sitting opposite the government. I.E. reserved seating just like the government.

They are also expected to question/challenge the government activities. If you watch Prime ministers Questions on Wednesday in parliament. You will notice the opposition leader gets to ask questions more openly then other MPs. I.E. he/she can ask questions more fluidly, and responsively to the PM's answers. Where as all the folks standing in the benches have to submit questions via the speaker. Why you will often hear them just quote a question number.

9point6

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Vassal