https://www.businessinsider.com/china-debt-economy-implode-stock-market-wall-street-xi-jinping-2023-6
Wall Street's dream of a big Chinese boom, post-COVID reopening, has officially gone bust.
Great article - this part shows one big challenge:
The problem is that while consumers may be picking up, the biggest drivers of the Chinese economy — property and exports — are going to stay dormant. Consumer consumption makes up about 37% of the Chinese economy (in the US that figure is about 70%). So a return to normal activity from consumers is helpful, but it's not enough to carry the economy. China was never going to be able to deliver on the miracle reopening that Wall Street wanted without getting the wheels of its massive export and property machines moving. Beijing has tried to shift the country toward a consumption model, like the US, but exports still make up 20% of China's economy. In May, outbound shipments declined by 7.5%, the first decrease this year.
China is in a catch 22 - They need to produce inexpensive products to make them attractive for export to the US and other places, but they need salaries to rise internally in order for their citizens to shift to consumption, but that would increase the prices of their goods. Combine that with an aging population and anti-China sentiment in much of the western world the future is definitely uncertain.