Idk if they're smart enough to actually do that, but I think they could definitely fuck shit up. It's a 50,000 strong paramilitary force with excellent resources, communication, and a lot of esprit du corps. Their big liability would be that they're inept cowards with no combat experience. I suppose if they fucked up enough voting booths and falsified enough ballots they could do something but idk enough about voting in NY to guess if they could actually flip it.
Though, if they could just totally fuck it up and remove NY's votes from the process, that might cause some real shit on the national level.
Biden would send in the national guard at that point, even though he obviously doesn't care about winning the election for Kamala he still has to maintain the federal government as the top dog, especially in a Dem stronghold.
They could also just shoot up lines for voting and claim people keep coming at them with knives