https://theconversation.com/trump-marginally-ahead-of-harris-in-us-national-polls-but-harris-improves-from-bidens-polls-235632
The former president has a narrow lead over the current vice president, but Harris’ numbers are on the rise.
This is why I keep saying polls don’t matter, besides the whole small percentage of people who actually answer random phone calls in 2024.
I literally just saw a “poll” come back as Kamala leading, but now this is not true, and she is behind?
Just vote, everyone. Ignore any polls, and vote.
How are the polls done anyways? If they rely on TV ads or random phone numbers a large portion of younger generations will-not be in the sample. Seems like more technically literate populations will be missed rendering the polls useless.
I’m sure each poll has their own way, but the most common way I’ve heard them do them is to call people.
Which is why I think we should ignore them completely. A lot of the younger generation will not answer a random phone call unless they were expecting a random number to call them. Even then, when they learn it is about a poll, they will probably decline it.
I arguably qualify as "younger generation" because I remember when the PlayStation was new, and yes random unknown calls are screened out every time.
I have to say this is not a good take. Polls aren't all the same, but news outlets treat them like they are. Even the same pollsters come up with slightly different numbers each time they run them.
Because there is a certain amount of uncertainty doesn't make them invalid. We just need to be more educated on filtering the good from the bad.
You sort of have 2 options:
Get educated on polling errors, the statistics, and the methodologies of the polls and arrive at your own conclusions.
Ignore anything written by the main media outlets about polls, because looking at a single poll is really dumb.
They definitely do matter, and there's validity to them, but they don't claim to be the exact truth. If you know how to use them, they are quite helpful.
Seeing as how the “news” outlets would obviously loooooove a dictatorship (We have always been at war with East Asia) I truly think the best thing to do is ignore the polls. Full stop.
I think you have communities confused. Your rule 3 removal is politics, which neither Jeffw nor myself moderate.
Half of Americans are uneducated, angry, and too ignorant to realize this dingus (Trump) is the poster child for everything they should hate. Instead, they focus hate on minorities and people who have no power.
Don't believe the polls no matter what. VOTE!!! Volunteer to give rides to those that wouldn't be able to vote otherwise.
Harris stable at 38% (odds of winning, not portion of votes) on polymarket.
It's a prediction market using cryptocurrency. Look at predictit.net for a more traditional one.
Shrug, it's a way to bet on election outcomes. No different from betting on football or the stock market. The betting lines really do tell you something about the underlying reality, since if you are sure the true odds are different, they give you a way to turn that knowledge into an expectation of cash. I don't participate myself, but you could interpret that as a weak belief that the current odds are about right.
That particular one comes with the stench of crypto but the original one (Iowa Electronic Markets) didn't have that. Of course I'd expect the offered odds at all those things to be the same, or else there is arbitrage available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets
Added: I just found this and it is pretty good:
https://mickbransfield.com/2024/01/18/the-last-25-years-of-the-iowa-electronic-markets/
The "accuracy" section claims that from 1988 to 2008, the IEM outperformed polls. It doesn't say about post-2008 so maybe there is more gaming of the markets now.