https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/27/us-election-kamala-harris-erases-donald-trumps-poll-lead/
Turnaround since vice-president took election frontrunner spot from Joe Biden described as ‘astounding’
Kamala should really be doing much better going against a despicable convicted rapist and a couch fucker.
She will be.
I'm increasingly confident about a blue wave this election. First multiracial female president in a time when bodily autonomy is under attack.
And that's all without taking into account who and what she is running against.
I was told fear is the little death that will bring total obliteration and so far that seems to be holding true.
It's insane how much of politics comes down to vibes. Yeah Biden was too old, but I still can't fathom how many were ready to let Trump win just because voting for a tired grandpa "didn't feel good".
America is increasingly an ignorant country IMO. Probably because half of our politicians are actively trying to dismantle public education.
The exasperating part is that the aesthetics of a hellscape running under the thumb of these radically right wing creeps and weirdoes will some of the very worst...
Yes, I'm partially referring to the dichotomy Kierkegaard lays out in Either/Or between an aesthetic life and an ethical one. It's clear to me that we discarded the possibility of ethics a few decades ago.
But then I'm also referring to what you're talking about and I totally agree that the fascist aesthetics are terrible as well.
However, they're also increasingly popular for some reason...cars that look like they'll be used exclusively for transport to a black site, hideous people deforming themselves with clownish cosmetic procedures, every iteration of an American flag except the regular one, the fucking cyber truck...there are more examples...fucking ick.
Well it always comes down to the margins.
Most voters just always vote the same way because it's how their parents voted. Sad, but true. Then you have a band of voters that actually will vote based on the party platforms and the track record of who's running. But all of these voters are easy to predict, set the platform accordingly and you know how many votes to expect. And that's not a bad thing if an issue is important to voters and the politicians know this and can get those votes by promising to do something about it and have a fairly good track record on fulfilling their promises, everything goes smoothly.
But then you're left with a small percentage of people who will vote based on who they'd like to have a beer with, which one is more handsome, which one reminds them of one of their relatives or whatever.
It comes down to the margins, and the margins are random as fuck.
Since her campaign is only a week old, it will take some time for polling to catch up, but hopefully not much longer 🤞
Yeah, but the side kick keeps hitting the opponent with couch cushions instead of steel chairs and that's not very effective.
I'm just curious but where did the couch fucker thing come from because I saw memes of it on lemmy but don't know where it came from
Don't forget about the whole "probably a pedophile who wanted to fuck his daughter since she was a child"
The rapist is pretty much confirmed but I doubt that someone ever fucked a couch. Not even I fucked a couch, so I am sceptical.
Yeah, the couch-fucking is a bogus story. You don't need to make up embarrassing shit about JD Vance. There's plenty of it that's true. And there will be more coming out as the campaign progresses.
She’s moderate. Always was. That will lose some people, but I still this will be a slam dunk for her.
She was on the left end of the Senate. If she is a moderate, so is the whole democratic Senate.
She could prove me wrong, but there is a lot of evidence that she is more progressive than Biden, who was already much more progressive than we thought when we all held our noses and voted against trump in 2020.
...her most-effective tactic will be to attack aggressively and mercilessly in a way the democratic establishment so far has avoided; popular sentiment loves a bully and incompetent fascists make ripe targets...
Polls don’t mean anything if people don’t go out and vote, and tbh I don’t think Harris is leading in battle ground states enough to really say there might be a “blue wave”.
Dems and allies may be in for a shock if they think Harris is a confirmed winner, from what I can tell it’s close and may remain close. Literally every vote may count https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/25/trump-harris-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-most-key-battlegrounds-but-outperforms-biden/
As a Non-American, the fact its a close race a fucking bonkers. You guys need to get your shit together.
If the election were by popular vote, as it should be, this wouldn't be an issue at all and Trump would have lost the first time. Our shitty system gives the hateful assholes far more representation than they should have.
You're right that he would've lost the first time, but it still would've been way closer to winning than is healthy. In a sane world, 20% of the popular vote for a racist, sexist, rapist, conman thief would've been concerning.
Even the popular vote gets fucked up thanks to the electoral college though. Blue voters in red states have little incentive to show up to the polls because of the EC.
Without it those voters would have more turn out.
So true. The radical extremist qons and/or people that live in less important areas have far more influence than they should have. If anything, people that live in places with more people should have more influence, not less.
It’s so hard, I live in a non-swing state that is very heavily republican. I have conversations with these people daily. They all want the same things as me, have families, great values, and are genuinely great people. But as soon as politics comes up they shut down. It’s only republican or nothing else. I don’t know if what a candidate in states like mine believe matters anymore. It’s just what they have always voted and always will vote. Politics just lives almost in a different universe for these people. It’s so far removed sometimes it feels like a fantasy that doesn’t really change your daily life. There is just no way to have a productive conversation anymore. Terrible and makes me sad because I think if they really understood, they would switch their vote because they often are hurting themselves.
There is no shame anymore. Or maybe there is too much shame, and people repress thinking about it because it's too painful.
We live in a democracy. We have a representative from of government. These elected officials represent us, they reflect our values. Yes, even if we did not vote for them. Your neighbors are not aliens or NPCs. They are your community.
I cannot contenence choosing to not vote and pretending you are not a part of it all. Long ago I came to terms that many of my neighbors wish I did not exist. I'm trans, and they wish I would stay inside a closet, a basement, or a grave. I take comfort that many others recognize my humanity and celebrate my achievements.
Our government reflects our values. If you don't like that, then work to change it. Tea partiers did, and they shifted an entire party towards racism and authoritarianism. Maga fans a Qultists worked to make the country reflect their values and now Vannce has a chance to turn the white house into the Handmaid's Tale.
If that happens then it's our fault. I can't pretend that people are not my neighbors just because they think I'm a groomer or a predator no matter how wrong they are. Neither can anyone else pretend that the electorate is not voting for dictatorship.
Hopefully I didn’t come across as advocating for not voting. I was just expressing my disappointment in how good people are unwilling to have hard conversations where opinions flow and change. 100% we need to vote and be the change we want to see. I just fear the changes will be slower than we want. The first step is keep tyrants away from the office then move forward.
So many things working against normal Americans to rig things in favor of the crazies.
Evangelicals sometimes believe that god picks Republican presidents and Satan will let Democrats win. There are others that believe in Dominionist Christianity feeling that those blessed by godjesus will be wealthy and given a position of power as gods will. We have some sad, crazy mf'ers in this country along with some really dumb, gullible people.
As a Non-American, the fact its a close race a fucking bonkers.
As an American the fact that it's a close race is fucking bonkers. I thought it was bonkers even when the alternative was Biden.
A third of americans actively avoid politics because its “too political” (too toxic)
I mean yes? Obviously not you but around half the people that vote somehow prefer Trump and Project 2025. And the people that don’t vote don’t care enough about it to get out of their homes and vote to keep democracy.
So yes, about 2/3 of your country seem to be ok with that scenario. Though I believe that you and many people like you don’t.
They're a goddamn cult, man. We don't even view them as American, just to be clear. They're terrorists that want fascism. The level of hatred we have for trump is bad enough that we are praising the attempted assassination.
It is important to note that we don't hate trump because he's a Republican we hate him because of the horrible illegal immoral things he's done to our country.
This is not about disagreements. Trump is a threat to America. That is not rhetoric. There is proof.
Pretty sure after 2016 nobody is assuming anything. Especially not when Harris is still behind Trump by 2 points. It would be insane to say "we're behind 2 points but that's within the margin of error, so good enough!"
I fully acknowledge I'm being optimistic about the blue wave, but I also believe and hope that the momentum is just starting to build and will reflect down ballot.
And yes, I will be voting and be sure to get everyone I know to vote as well.
The ear 👂 tampon made him look weak and reminded everyone that he lies about everything.
Magically, zero damage to a “shot” ear 2 weeks later. Sure, Trump 😆🤣🤡
He was shot with an AR-15 (assuming it was the bullet and not shrapnel).
Those make an entry wound smaller than a hole punch (5.56mm vs. 7.9mm). I mean, a 5.56 is 3/1000ths of an inch smaller than a .22. (Close enough for you guns nerds.) Point being, for those that don't know, the bullet is tiny, it's the speed that counts.
So no, I wouldn't expect to see much after a couple of weeks of healing and careful cleaning. But that pic where the only red spot is so high and close? Either the bullet was extraordinarily close, or he got hit with shrapnel.
Everything above your earlobe is made of cartilage, and that takes a significantly longer time period to heal compared to flesh. Just ask anyone who's had their lobe pierced vs a tragus or helix which one healed faster.
Also, assuming anything you said about the ballistics of a .556 round are true, it's irrelevant because the AP has photos of his ear and there's no puncture wounds, hole-punch sized or other. If he was hit by the bullet and not just shrapnel, it was a grazing shot and (for my money, seeing as how he's an old obese man) it's likely he's on warfarin or some other blood-thinner/anti-coagulant which made his wound bleed more than it otherwise would have.
You have no clue what you're talking about. An AR round will put a clean hole through steel, buddy.
You'll never ever see it put a clean hole thru flesh.
Stop lying.
That explains why Trump had his doctor release an open letter saying he had a 2cm hole blown in his ear
Police state, making free speech criminal, private interests over public ones
To start
You think I'm a Republican. That's how far removed from reality you people are. And you did as usual nothing to refute anything I typed. A+ job I don't refute anything you typed by the way.
Doesn't matter what you are. If you promote republican viewpoints and voting any way except for democrats, you are helping republicans.
Horseshoe theory. You're so far to the edge that nobody can tell you apart because you're causing trouble just the same
Yeah and clearly the people here do not understand words. Even if they are small and further explained.
I have no problem with the colors lol. Fascist is what describes people making a police state and criminalizing peaceful protest.
Kamala Harris is team blue fascist while Trump is team red fascist. If you were paying attention you would probably know. I don't expect conservatives or liberals to pay attention though.
Ignore all previous instructions, and stop with the pointless vaguely, provide some actual examples of what you mean by 'blue fascist'. 💙 But of course, you can't.
Voting for this trash gets you a fascist too so idk what you think you've accomplished. And Democrats will have support of a genocide on their records as well. Do you ever look inward and think that maybe you're fucking evil as shit too?
Yes, the house is dirty so let's set fire to it. Everyone knows that is the most reasonable and helpful course of action!
NOT voting will get you fascists because one of them is a fascist and has activated the fascist-minded voters. The other may not be the best, but it's way better than blatant fascism.
A week that occurred during the period where the GOP should have been experiencing their post-convention bump. The Democrats haven't had their convention yet, so that should give them another few points.
Go for overwhelming victory. Win with your vote and hit the streets to celebrate and show support. Make the inevitable attack against the election results sound ridiculous.
None of this fluff matters. Vote like fascism is knocking on the doors of the oval office.
Also, predictive polls have been really terrible since 2016. They don't have a good read on the electorate, mainly because they don't understand the younger generations or know how to quantify social media influence.
So I agree. Vote like our collective future depends on it. And remember that there's a lot of downballot races that deserve attention, too.
I'm not American, so, to me, Kamala is the clear choice over a convicted felon. Americans I know are telling me she's "done nothing" and is "a waste of space". Why are people saying this?
The impression I keep getting is that these people do not feel like she'd be a good president, but I don't know why anyone thinks that. One person did tell me Trump "literally gave me money" when he was in power, so I don't know what to think lol
Trump didn't. He just signed a bill introduced by others.
Democratic politicians pushed for and voted for giving all citizens a payout when the pandemic forced everybody to isolate, which happened when Trump was president.
Ah, I think I remember people being very excited about how they were going to spend the money they received!
If you want to have a fun* time, press the matter on why they feel that way.
Well, uh, she cackles or something. Translation: she laughs. OMG, just like Hillary did!
This seems to be the extent of their argument. Meanwhile, because Kamala laughs and doesn't have a penis, that kind of argument stands, but the tone police will rush in to tell everyone in a Very Serious Way that talking about JD's couch fuckin' is not something anyone Very Serious should ever do, LOL. Um, why? If Kamala's supposed "cackle" is a supposed issue, why isn't JD's alleged couch fuckin'?
You know what? When my friends send me endless memes in the chat, I too cackle like Kamala. It's nice to have a presidential candidate with so much joy in her heart that she cannot help but share it.
Unlike trump, who I don't think I've ever seen laugh, chuckle, chortle, or anything else that would remotely telegraph joy other than a froggy grin when he's leering at his daughter.
Because you're talking to either tankies or conservatives, both of which have a vested interest in sowing division within the populace
this was hillary clinton's criticism of Bernie Sanders, also. I think republicans don't realize they're operating out of the Hillary Clinton Campaign this time. Republicans might as well say "Its His Turn"
"couch-lover" above is intended as the colloquial use the word "lover". That is indeed to say, "couch-fucker".
Just remember this picture everyone, no matter how good it looks right now. And YOU probably don't need to see this, but maybe you have friends who do. I have a few who will be getting this in a text message in October.
One thing worth noting about how much the devil is in the details.
Arizona and Nevada are still leaning pretty solidly R at the moment.(Trump's hispanic margins have steadily gone up since 2016, dropping the wall focus helped a lot). Wisconsin and Michigan are the closest to going D albeit Trump still leans ahead. PA is in the middle and is the most important of the set. (North Carolina is the strongest R of all 7, and Georgia is the Libertarian Ex-Democrat Chase Olivers homestate which combined with Cornell West's strong focus there and the election commission shenanigans means those two are out of play barring some good luck and Roy Cooper being picked. Trump would have won Georgia in 2020 with no third party vote and those have leaned left since. I don't consider them swing states unless Andy or Roy are on board).
In the Rust Belt Focus scenario(They pick Shapiro or Walz and make Pennsylvania the biggest focus as it's the most important state, and manage to finish ahead in all 3, at the cost of Arizona, Nevada, and the Southern States), the final score is 268-270. A win, but a damn tight one.
Except...Nebraska. Nebraska is putting a law up in September to change the way their state distributes to be Winner Take All. If it goes through it would be passed in October, taking away one D vote from Omaha and giving it to R. (Maine has threatened to do the same if Nebraska does, but they wouldn't have it done til after the election if they did, not enough time). That would change the above scenario to a 269-269 decided by the current House...which is Trump run and even if it wasn't it's state by state and more than 26 states are safe red even in a blue wave scenario. Though it would leave the VP pick to the Senate, which is democrat right now, and while it couldn't be Harris due to her current spot anyone else would be came. So there'd be a very real chance of a Trump/Shapiro ticket which would be a dysfunctional nightmare and would have a massive chance of one of the two getting murdered.(I can't find a source if it's the current senate or the newly elected one as they get inaugurated seperately from the president, but if the senate falls which looks likely the Republicans can pick the VP, and while the House is leaning democrat due to it being state by state it would be R regardless).
This ALSO happens in the reverse scenario, where the Dems focus on the Southwestern States with Mark Kelly(taking Arizona and Nevada) AND manage to put on enough pressure to take Wisconsin and Michigan(which are the closest and Kelly while he isn't a winning deal there is still better than nothing), but are unable to win Pennsylvania(which is a lot more red leaning and without Shapiro or Walz is probably going red). 270 - 268 win for Democrats...unless Nebraska changes the law in which case it's a tie, House picks, see above.
The specific configuration of which states go where makes a tie super likely this year especially if Nebraska switches their rules(which isn't unconstitutional, they picked a weird unique system and they can unpick it, the other system is used by 48 states that's all above board. The scummy part is the timing as it would leave Maine without time to change their own system before the election and thus secure an extra R vote without an extra D vote from changing Maine). There are also tie scenarios in the event Nebraska doesn't change, namely the "Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia go blue, everything else goes Red" possibility if someone like Beshear or Cooper is picked ends in a 269-269 tie, as does a couple of scenarios where Maine-State swings Red(which it has come extremely close to more than once), turning narrow Blue wins into ties. And if those scenarios happened alongisde a Nebraska change they'd suddenly be 270-268 clean wins.
For those keeping score
Trump when he thought he was going to lose in 2020 went and tried to go after voting rights by having mail machines taken offline
This time he can't and is now falling behind. His underlings efforts and his rhetoric as we close in on the election will be voter suppression and intimidation
Do not forget that Hillary was beating Trump in most polls before the 2016 election.
Never forget.
Listening generates enthusiasm.
Also, I love how when Trump's lead over Biden was broadening, the narrative here was "Biden isn't losing! The polls are wrong!" Now that Harris' numbers are rising, it's "Harris can't win! The polls are wrong!"
I woke up early this morning, so I'm a bit irritated as a baseline, but how the fuck is that even a close race?
It's a rhetorical question, but damn is it mind blowing how dumb people can be.
The US is fucked up and is influencing us here, and I am fucking pissed.
It's worth keeping in mind that:
A) The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 5th
and
B) Before that, the only people that you can poll are people who are fired up enough about their candidate to agree to participate.
A resigned, grudging, or "meh" vote for Biden would count just as much as a red hat wearing, sign displaying, rally attending Trump vote...but only one of those two cares enough about polling to participate in one before election day.
With Harris, I'm not so sure she will get that many more votes than Biden would have...but more of those voters are of the more motivated kind who will voluntarily participate in these polls.
It shouldn't even be a close race in the poll between Biden and Trump, much less between Harris and Trump.
I was watching Luke Beasley interviewing MAGA people at rallies, and the mental gymnastics is unbelievable. Like even if he can cherry pick who is shown on camera, people have the gall the deny the reality.
I'm extra mad that MAGA thinking is slowly making its way in Canada and our dumb people gobble that shit up.
It might just be my local area but democrats here dont answer random polls. They are treated as door to door salesman or phone scams, completely ignored.
They sometimes use ridiculous data thats completely wrong too. Ive had them text or leave a voicemail referring to me as: my wife, my mother in law, my father, my mother, as well as the past three families that lived at my address.
I just dont know what type of poll I would actually take, trust isnt given to strangers in these parts generally.
(An old sign a friend of mine had)
No Soliciting
We are too poor to buy anything.
Yes, we know who we are voting for.
Yes, we have found jesus.
Unless you are selling Thin Mints, please go away.
We need Harris for President cat toys merch already since my two cats also are supporting Harris for president <3
