https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680
A new poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point ahead of November's election.
It’s reassuring if true, but Newsweek are a right-wing disinformation source. Perhaps they’re reporting this straight, or perhaps this is disinformation aimed at a specific goal. In any case, nothing from them should be taken at face value unless verified from a reputable source.
Huh, I had assumed Newsweek was mostly left, but it looks like you're correct:
Bias Rating: RIGHT-CENTER
Factual Reporting: MOSTLY FACTUAL
Country: USA
MBFC’s Country Freedom Rating: MOSTLY FREE
Media Type: Magazine
Traffic/Popularity: High Traffic
MBFC Credibility Rating: HIGH CREDIBILITY
I haven't read it in over a decade though...
FWIW, I had a subscription over a decade ago. I can't say I ever thought of it as "Left", it was at best, corporate center. But it definitely has gone more right as it has also gone more sensationalist. They partnered with Daily Beast for a while, and then were sold to IBT media, an international "news and Information" conglomerate. I think your memories are from the old hard journalism days, and they have gone back to corporate, but corporate-right.
I could have sworn previously that maggot chuds used to call it NewsWeak. Guess new ownership had different plans
Yeah I member when newsweek would find an excuse to put Jesus' face on the cover ever other week.
Isn't all corporate, right or center? This is maybe a me problem but I think of the Democrats as a center right party because of their policies regarding corporations.
You can assume a right-center bias for almost any outlet, and I think mediabiasfactcheck needs to recalibrate, if we are being honest. See their assessment of NYT, as a for instance.
It is disinformation. The data from the poll they are referencing was mostly completed before the assassination attempt: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive Link)
The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
I’m guessing it’s too early for polls to actually tell. It comes around the same time as the RNC, so even if his numbers go up, it may be hard to tell what is responsible
Im voting for not trump. Hopefully at some my in my lifetime my vote will actually count.
Nope. Your vote always counts. It may not feel like it counts much, it's one vote, but it will absolutely count. We have to stop this rhetoric of "my vote doesn't count" because it's how people justify not voting at all.
Especially from the "not trump" side of things, voter turnout is the only thing that stops them from winning. If you can give right/republicans one thing they have consistent voter turnout, but every single time overall voter counts are boosted (Like during Obama's initial election) the needle of results sways strongly towards Democrats/independents.
So please, please stop saying your vote doesn't count. Because even if it's a single vote it is SO important that you go and do it.
Electoral college is what counts. If California was a battleground state, then yes, my vote counts.
No, even if it's not battleground your vote still counts. Even if it's just to show the numbers, get out there.
We need to worry about motivation, not polls. Very few people will change their minds about the candidates, but many of them will change their minds about voting. Some percentage of likely voters will always stay home. That percentage is going to be much lower for people whose candidate survived an assassination attempt.
Rage Kage said something dumb about it and now Jaybles doesn't want to work with him anymore
I don't think that's what went down, I think they're just doing PR damage control behind closed doors. I don't think this has actually effected their relationship. Jack Black is definitely not a supporter of trump at least.
Jablinski is a piece of shit for trying to maintain their PR by denouncing a statement that could be interpreted as a call to violence?
"trump is literally the next Hitler guys"
"great so we don't even need a time machine"
"oh not like that though"
👀
Look I'm not saying that it's a good thing that the shot missed. I'm just saying that it's understandable how someone might want to not say the quiet part out loud when it doesn't make a tangible difference on who ends up being president come January, but does make a tangible difference on how much money they make.
Publicly calling for violence against the man who might be a dictator of the country you live in this time next year isn't exactly the safest play either, long-term.
We need to keep Trump out of the white house, but advocating for that "by any means necessary" is a dangerous play, no matter how much you personally agree with the people making such statements.
On record. Off record, we all know he feels about the racist rapist with 34 felonies that wants to be a dictator and end democracy.
A Bible minute, for your Christian friends who might be voting for Trump.
Revelation 13 "The dragon stood on the shore of the sea. And I saw a beast coming out of the sea. It had ten horns and seven heads, with ten crowns on its horns, and on each head a blasphemous name. The beast I saw resembled a leopard, but had feet like those of a bear and a mouth like that of a lion. The dragon gave the beast his power and his throne and great authority.
One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, but the fatal wound had been healed. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the beast. People worshiped the dragon because he had given authority to the beast, and they also worshiped the beast and asked, “Who is like the beast? Who can wage war against it?”
The beast was given a mouth to utter proud words and blasphemies and to exercise its authority for forty-two months [or three and a half years...my note]."
(I am not saying this is some prophecy fulfilling event. I'm just saying if your friends are voting for Trump and they're Christians, perhaps this scripture might cause them to think twice before voting for the Antichrist. Just might want to mention it to them.)
I gotta tell you, as a guy who was deeply in this muck, they give ZERO shits what the Bible says. I wouldn't bother with engaging in the theology.
No, I was able to ummm.. let go of literal concepts and only focus on metaphorical faith. But the ability of a religion to abuse people without upsetting their own morality was too much for me. If you can't see the pure evil in men who are willing to authorize buying child sexual abuse liability insurance, and aren't willing to authorize a program to feed to poor, or end homelessness, or even care about homelessness, how are you even a Christian? The reality is that if Jesus was real, and showed up tomorrow, he'd probably DEEPLY regret starting a religion that turned into this. And once you tap out of the religion you're parents gave you, it REALLY sticks out that they are all made up gibberish at best, and pure fucking evil scams at worst.
I started to interpret ''love one another'' as mutually exclusive to ''fuck them kids''. Also my kid isn't heteronormative, and she still wanted to do youth activity stuff, the other kids were great to her, also a lot of them aren't heteronormative either, but she's old enough and out enough that it's REALLY obvious to the adults, and she went to one activity and the local leader guy called us with just WILD ass accusations, but it's a small town, and there's less than 3 degrees of separation from any random person, so my mom found the kid this accusation was about, and that kid 1. Didn't remember who my kid was the day after the thing and 2. Had no idea what the leader was saying, and we really realized that our kid can't be around these fucking psychopaths that think ''liars will be thrust to hell'' is more a gentle suggestion than a commandment, and ''fuck them kids'' is an acceptable life motto to stitch onto a pillow.
This is a fun read if you haven't seen it. It hasn't been updated since before the 2020 election. It's a wild ride......
Deep down, a lot them seem to be just fine with accelerating/bringing about the supposed eschaton. Look at the way they stroke off to Israel.
if your friends are voting for Trump and they’re Christians
They are fully invested in a propaganda machinery that has indoctrinated them to only believe what they hear from the only source they still trust. If god tells them trump is evil, they will accuse god of lying without even thinking twice about it.
iirc there was something about plagues of locusts in there too. The big chungus locusts are extinct (and fuck 'em) but this year is the height of the 17 year cicada breeding cycle.
There are plenty of other signs like that you could cite, too.
edit: I see Veneroso has already posted the link I was going to post.
lol the people shielding him with their bodies, choosing to die for him, would be among the first to get fired if he were to win. along with every other single secret service in charge of the event that day
They're still talking about his rigged 2020 was rigged.
Trump wanted investigations into 2016, and he won!
100% 2024.... RIGGED!
Yes, they'll say it was rigged no matter what. What matters is who actually ends up in office on Jan. 20th.
Their model showed that it was a VERY close race and Trump had a 1 in 4 chance of winning.
That doesn’t mean “Clinton is guaranteed to win.” It means, it’s a 4 sided die roll, and Trump had a side.
She had a bigger lead than mr 34 felonies has right now. I don't really care what polls say because they're a load of shit. VOTE. If everyone votes, we won't have any republikkklowns in office.
Yup, it was within the probability. What it shows is that a lot of people who voted for Trump didn't say they were when polled.
IMHO, it mostly shows that most people don’t actually understand statistics and polling.
If you have two candidates that are neck and neck, and are split by a percent that is close to the margin of error, then things can go either way depending on who is able to turnout votes on Election Day.
I believe, in this election, with two unfavorable candidates, everything is already baked in. There's very little to move the needle at this point.
Biden screws the pooch during a debate? Polls still show him leading by a point or two, but within the margin of error. Trump gets nearly assassinated? Same, Biden leading by a not statistically significant number.
This election is going to be a squeaker, and we're going to see unrest either way. We need a blowout to avoid that, and it's not happening.
Edit: last poll I read had Biden leading. Either way doesn't change what I said.
Is Biden shown leading? I only see doom and gloom posted here. Agreed on the need for a blowout, though. We need to show the world we categorically denounce the far right, and that looks unlikely even if Biden wins.
Biden is absolutely not leading. State polling has him behind in every swing state. Nate Silver's model gives Biden a 30% chance of winning, slightly down from the debate.
Unfortunately I see a 0% chance of Biden winning...
Democrats need polls to be overwhelmingly in their favor for us to just squeeze by. Being as low as we are should be taken as "we're like 6x worse than what polls currently show."
Polls have been remarkably accurate in the last few election cycles.
The "polls are wrong" talking point is a convenient way for politicians to ignore the will of the people. Trump has done this for a long time, and recently Biden has taken up this practice to pretend that the "Real Americans" think he is fit to be president for another 4 years.
So please don't repeat this talking point, or at least read a bit into historical accuracy of polls before you declare them bullshit.
Guess I'm being overly optimistic thinking that Trump would be supported at all, let alone have a lead. Regardless of how shit a candidate Biden is, Trump is a fucking disgrace and a criminal among a whole other list of garbage. Appreciate you taking the time to call out my random comment on Lemmy.
Polls being wrong claim is more about how election results seem to be different than poll results. Special elections points to that.
Polls have a margin of error and election results have generally been within the 80% confidence interval 80% of the time.
It is true that when there are less polls (like in special elections) it's harder to get an understanding of the state of the race.
Here we go again with the "too soon to have collected enough data" bullshit...
Just like immediately after the debate "nO cHaNgEs To PolLs" and then days later he started dropping... Because you know... Time and all that...
As much as I want this to be true, this is straight up misinformation at this moment.
The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)
Under "In this tracker"
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
I don't see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
It's also strange that the number of participants doesn't match up. Newsweek says 2,045 but your link says 2,203. Of course we would know what the issue is if they left a link to the poll rather than a vague description.
It seems like you're right though and this is bullshit.
Polls are extra meaningless this election. No one is undecided between the Toupee and Biden. If there's any indecision on either side, it's between voting for the party's nominee or not voting in the presidential election.
Which is why it continues to baffle that the Democratic campaign strategy has been mostly if not entirely "I'm not quite as bad as the Other Guy!"
Maybe his polls will actually start going down because people are afraid he has a traumatic brain injury. Look at the blood coming out of his head. That plus possible PTSD is very understandable.
It's unfortunate, but maybe he should step down so Republicans can run someone else. Trump already had some mental problems and a bullet to the head doesn't help. Blood coming from his head or his wherever isn't good.
I'm sure the hypothetical live view of the Trump polling ticker went WAY UP for about 12 hours. Then it was revealed the shooter was conservative and that trend line shot at a vertical downward towards baseline.
To hear the slobbering bothsidering "liberal media" (and forget about the patently ridiculous far right wing outlets) his win was a fait accompli after the shooting.