https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-chances-winning-election-plummet-debate-bookmakers-1918586
Joe Biden's odds of winning the 2024 election fell after his performance in Thursday's debate, according to leading bookmakers.
according to leading bookmakers.
Oh for fuck's sake, can we please get one post-debate article that isn't highly partisan or just moronic?
That would involve having a media environment that isn't controlled by billionaires who are highly involved in manufacturing consent for regressive policies.
I mean the betting markets are generally aligned with extravagant statistical prediction models.
After all these markets have hundreds of millions poured into them, and people are trying to win not loose. Obviously there are still problems with them, and that headline really should have included “according to bookmakers”.
Are you sure about that?
If I make a $10,000,000 bet in one direction to change the betting odds to make everyone think my viewpoint is more popular, that's a very cheap marketing campaign.
Even if I lose all that money, it's good marketing. Especially if I'm manipulating less popular topics with less $$$$ needed to change the odds.
that’ll only change the odds on a single bookmaker. There are thousands on the election.
Also it’s highly illegal to bet on an event you are part of (although that doesn’t seem to stop trump from doing other things).
Additionally, to sway public opinion, influencing pollsters and the media (which we have objective proof of camapigns doing) is more effective. although they were mentioned in this article, they’ll be mentioned a lot less than polls.
Also it’s highly illegal to bet on an event you are part of (although that doesn’t seem to stop trump from doing other things).
Illegal to who?
FBI? Or some poor IT administrator who gives no shits about this issue?
Additionally, to sway public opinion, influencing pollsters
You're using the fucking betting market as a poll. A system that is innately, and provably, influenced by money. Not even indirectly, but DIRECTLY influenced by money.
Then you paper over this fact by saying "but people want to make money", ignoring the fact that these campaigns are literally spending $100,000,000+ sums, losing money throughout a whole campaign to try to change public opinion by about 5%.
Troublingly, the electorate rather resembles the coverage: highly partisan or just moronic.
The frightening realisation to take away is that most people don’t have a visceral horror of fascism in the way that progressives on Mastodon do. Which makes sense: if fascism was regarded with widespread revulsion, the Trumps and Orbans and Netanyahus of this world would be as successful as someone running a dogshit sandwich stall at the local market.
You are totally right.
Fascism appeals to humanity's most basic impulses and fascists will therefore always be a threat to democracy.
People crave the strong, authoritarian leader who will protect them from danger.
The frightening realisation to take away is that most people don’t have a visceral horror of fascism in the way that progressives on Mastodon do.
Oh, don't worry. Many of the people on the Fediverse don't have a visceral horror of fascism either. To them it's "Both sides are fascist" because otherwise they might feel uncomfortable letting Trump win, and wouldn't feeling uncomfortable about that just be awful.
most people don’t have a visceral horror of fascism
No the problem is instead of:
Fascists vs non-fascist
We get:
Fascists vs slightly less fascist
That's not good enough to win elections. It's not a binary choice between 0 and 1, it's 0.5 and 1.
Uhh, Trump was the protest vote for a lot of people, unfortunately (Defifuckinlutely not me). Also, soooo few people vote, particularly in non-presedential year elections.
I always strategically vote for the best candidate, and live in a state which allows me to do so without impacting chances of the (more) fascist candidate winning the general election.
That's not going to stop trump.
What will stop trump is running a good candidate.
But Biden and the people he appointed to run the DNC would rather trump win than Biden step aside for the good of the country
You are missing the point...
Neither side is a good choice. No matter who they run. Deny theme electoral legitimacy
Politics is not a zero sum game. You don't vote for the good choice. You vote for the less bad choice.
Biden and the people he appointed to head the DNC don't have to be the people running the DNC...
We can replace them and have a functional leftwing party again.
It's not quick, and it's not painless, but it's possible.
We already wasted a generation on this circle jerk.... If not two tbh
Why would I ever play their games again?
Protest vote until third party candidate arrives to capture us or I die in this clown dystopia as is and hope next generation can do better.
I don't see any other option here. An
Depending on where you live a protest vote is perfect. If you live in a swing state, you should vote for Biden or Trump. If you live in a solid state like California, voting third party won't hurt either candidates chances.
Says the guy whose head has been in the sand while we talk about what a bad choice Biden is for a couple years now.
Pony up nutjob, who is your candidate who can win 270 Electoral College votes at a higher likelihood than the sitting President?
Now? You mean after the dems refused to allow a primary / primary debates and have been shouting from the rooftops that dementia grandpa is the only candidate who can beat Trump?
Correction. Genocide enabling dementia grandpa
Hmmm….
I got a bowl of fresh popcorn here. Whoever the dems choose, they screwed themselves with their own choices.
Bernie would beat Trump by 20-30 points but the donor class would rather have Trump than that.
It’s not looking good.
It’s obvious Biden is going to lose unless he steps down.
Corporate dems would end up choosing someone like Hillary - who is the only person to ever lose against Trump lol….
I don’t have a lot of hope. The way it stands now, Trump is going to win. It just an obvious and blatant fact.
Honestly doesn't even need to be walking. You could absolutely Weekend at Bernies him in a very obvious way and I'd still prefer him over trump
Or maybe it was Trump who lost the debate and his chances are worse afterwards? Who knows definitely not fucking Newsweek or CNN or Fox or anybody for that matter.
I do know that Trump is a fucking criminal and a human trash pos. So a lot of people won’t be voting for whatever that pile of shit is.
Everyone from Jon Stewart to Pod Save America recognize Biden had one of the worst debate performances in history. Focus groups of undecided voters who watched said Biden lost.
Let's stay in reality and face the facts. Let's not stoop to maga alt-reality.
Instead let's just fix the issue at hand, assuage the concerns of voters, and improve our odds of beating Trump. Because there is no good data to support a Biden victory.
It’s funny to see the blue maga folks try to frame this as a failure of progressives.
Or somehow try to say that Biden somehow had good talking points in between the times he was mumbling or completely losing his train of thought.
So a lot of people won’t be voting for whatever that pile of shit is.
I wouldn't be so sure of that.
Republicans will vote Republican no matter what.
Dem voters have always needed a candidate they like and/or agree with to turnout en mass and get the Dem elected.
It makes zero sense to keep blaming Dem voters for having standards instead of blaming party leaders for continuingly shoving candidates we don't like down our throats.
There is zero reason to keep pushing unpopular candidates.
But because we all held our noses for Biden 4 years ago, he got to nominate DNC leadership and he picked idiots who say Biden is our only shot.
Holding our noses and voting for a candidate whose not for basic parts of the party platform, just moves the party platform and makes it even harder to get votes the next election.
"Party leaders" did not shove Biden down our throats. Unless you're arguing that the party leaders of the dems are all the suburban soccer moms of the countries, and their consistency at voting. Then yes, that's true.
The party literally refused to hold any primary debates, or even primary elections in several states. They gave people no chance to even consider other candates.
And why? Because Dean Philips was doing so strongly, garnering appeal from progressives with his centrist positions?
If you want strong candidates, they need to run. If nobody good runs, then I think we've found the problem.
And I keep asking the people who say things like this who they canvassed for and they get defensive and don't give me an answer. Much like when I ask the Never-Bidens who I should vote for instead that has a chance of winning.
How can we know there were no strong candidates, when they don't get a real chance to run? They (and to be fair, most) simply assumed the incumbent was the best, because that's the way its been forever.
Polling, usually. Otherwise primary results. Most states did have their primary, btw, only a handful cancelled. Each state has their own way of doing it.
Can you name a candidate that was doing well at any point? Better than low single-digits? Dean was the only one I heard much about.
edit: You do remember the write-in uncommitted thing, right? Those were primaries.
The early primary states were specifically changed to states where Bidens poll numbers were strongest. And yes, the early primary winners carry that momentum into states where they might be less popular. They didn't have to change the primary order, but chose to, to help Biden.
I fucking hate republicans and will vote D no matter what (check my comment history). That was an abysmal performance on biden’s part. Appearances really fucking matter in this age of the mindless, post-facts voter. Biden needs to GTFO.
He shit the bed but this is blatant bait. There hasn’t even been time to poll this, and those would be limited in value regardless.
Again, terrible performance. But this headline is nonsense.
Best case scenario at this point is one of them croaks before November. It's insane to me that Biden even contemplated a second term, when the whole point of picking Kamala Harris as his VP was so she could be the young fit successor. It's time to roll out plan B, guys.
Thank God. I'd much rather a strong libertarian than either of the candidates. But since that's not going to happen, I have to pick the less of two evils.