https://www.dw.com/en/frances-macron-dissolves-parliament-calls-new-elections/a-69317313
French President Emmanuel Macron has dissolved the lower house of parliament and announced fresh elections after his party's poor performance in the EU elections. His party was defeated by the far-right National Rally.
What the fuck ? Quoi la baise ?
Looks like that at best France won't have a majority, at worst we'll have Ms Le Pen as a Prime minister (France is a semi presidential regime, and if the President doesn't have the majority, most of the power shifts toward the prime minister, with a president only relevant for international policy)
I don't know what kind of 4d chess he thinks he's playing. Is he hoping for the silent majority to rise up against the FN and vote for his party, does he bet on a coalition after the elections, is he ragequitting, or something else entirely?
Le Pen's party polls strong but has few allies. My guess is that Macron hopes that even with his party weakened, he can form a broad coalition that would keep Le Pen out. I have no idea how likely that is to work.
LR already said they won't make a coalition with LREM. They'd be at least as likely to ally with the RN. As for LFI/PC... LREM dislike them at least as much as they do the RN.
Only strategic move I see is let the RN govern until 2027 in the hope they flaceplant hard enough with no plan or coalition to hand an easy win back in the next presidential/legislative elections, which makes twisted sense given that everyone knew they were going to win in '27. Except the risk of that plan backfiring is stratospherically high, especially if the RN lands a majority (which is not unlikely as people were pissed off voting this morning, and will be even more pissed off after a dissolution).
Yes, I and could also see an alliance between Le Pen and whatever UMP (hard right conservatives that used to rule all the time until Sarkozy drove the party into the wall, for non French people) calls itself these days. So, if indeed the snap election is a gamble to keep himself in power, it's a risky gamble.
If it's a gamble to let them rule and fail, as you hypothesize, that's even riskier. Fash have a way of staying in power somewhat longer than their popular support.
Either way it's not going to be fun days in France for a little while, damn.
let the RN govern until 2027 in the hope they flaceplant hard enough
I can see how this would make sense but isn't 3 years a bit too short to set up policies and face their consequences? They would have to fail over short-term stuff and unpopular decisions, which (as much as I despise them with every fiber of my body) I don't think they would be dumb enough to do.
A minority government is almost guaranteed to fail, and that's theoretically bound to make them unpopular (as it has with every prime minister of Macron's second mandate).
However, this could backfire if they have a majority. It could also backfire because voters are not necessarily that dumb and might just see through this charade. If anyone can handwave piss-poor performance away, it's the RN.
Could be a good idea? If the right wing parties won due to low turnout from normal voters then it might be a good idea to call the election while it’s still fresh in everyone’s minds.
One theory some analysts say is that since Macron's second term ends in 2027, and since it's his last, if the FN doesn't govern well, then his party might be able to win again.
Basically, they're saying that Macron is playing a dangerous game of chess.
Ah, the good old von-Papen-maneuver. This time it will work for sure. What could possibly go wrong?
I agree with this theory. The public opinion changes very fast in France, it is risky but could work. Besides, the far-right would have kept rising till the presidentials anyways.
They gonna vote for rancid ass people and then blame it on us for looking down at them for voting for rancid ass people.
This is why I can't stand le intellectual rural vote understanders,
They have no reasons, they have no causes, they have no explanations or histories, what they have is a blind hatred of anything outside their own horizon, and a ballot they'll cast for whatever rancid ass person makes them feel the most like they'll get to express that without being rightfully called out as a bigot.
We've tried to reach them on class consciousness, and they asked "but can we still say the N-Word?"
They especially have a intense hatred for immigrants and minorities that they, as rural dwellers, have never even met.
Rural people are scared to move to the urban areas where life is actually happening, so they have a special resentment towards people who are brave enough to not just move into the city but do it in a new country with a new language and culture.
Can somebody ELI5? I'm not familiar with Frances politics. Why would Macron do this?
Macron’s party lost resoundingly. Le Pen said that this means that Macron’s party no longer has the legitimacy to run the country. Macron is probably trying to minimise his losses by calling elections, instead of having feelings of unhappiness bottle up even further
So, either he will prove Le Pen wrong and "restore" legitimacy, or he will lose everything before the actual time comes, am I correct? Seems like a reeeally bold move, especially if the other option is an alleged agent of Moscow
France has a slightly odd election system, where the vote for president is a free-for-all initially, and then the top two candidates face off.
He's currently the second largest party, so he's banking on being the contender against Le Pen for president, hoping that the left, center and moderate right help him win again (because Le Pen would be worse than he'd be).
It's not a terrible strategy, but it is a little risky.
Odd comparing to what? Two rounds is the way to ensure the president has a majority: first you vote for who you want, second time you veto. This is how you elect presidents in countries like France, Brazil, Romania, Portugal...it makes sense :)
PS: Macron did not resign, these are not presidential elections, this is a legislative election only.
The top two candidates may be quite polarising for example, whereas a 3rd candidate might be acceptable to all. Or there could be a large group of quite mediocre candidates.
It's not bad way per sé, but it's basically a band-aid around FPTP, instead of fixing the problem properly.
Actually you can never vote for what you want, unless it has a decent chance to make it to the second turn. The condorcet method would allow it.
My reading would be more like he doesn't see it getting any better with time before the next election, if he leaves the parliament to run to term he'll definitely lose, if he calls the vote now it minimises the bleeding and there's a chance they'll get another few years in power and maybe it will start coming back their direction.
just when their far right got one third in the EU Parliament election votes. that bodes well for their elections... :/
This is the best summary I could come up with:
French President Emanuel Macron announced Sunday he was dissolving the National Assembly and calling a snap election after his centrist alliance was trounced by the far-right National Rally in the European Parliament elections.
"I've decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote.
I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly," Macron said in an address to the nation.
This is a breaking news story and will be updated...
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At least you tried 🫡
Did Melenchon's candidacy crumble? Is there any clear party leading among the left right now? Is it possible Macron won't make it to the second round?
What is Macaroni trying to achieve here? He knows he's losing why would he call for national elections right now?
He might be attempting Rally around the flag effect using the threat of rising far right power to gain more seats for his own party in the French parliament. Probably hoping voters of other parties / dormant voters to rally for the vote.