The year that most people start using Linux is the year that it will find some way to sell out. *I know that it's not a monolothic thing, GPL, etc. but people ruin everything... enshittification, uh, finds a way
Not much different. Foldable phones will be widespread, American cars will be bigger, shaving machines will have more blades, natural disasters will be more common. We will go through one or two more cycles of drought/forest fires and heavy rains/floodings. We will see one or two mass migrations from India, Pakistan and Africa resulting in first climate refuge camps on the borders of EU.
Flying cars are a terrible idea. We can barely keep them rolling on the ground. Do you really want several tones of metal floating above your head?
Yes. Every single day, almost every person I see driving is looking at their cell phones or holding them at their mouth talking. I mean those odds should be astronomical, but it's more common than not. Imagine adding another dimension of travel to that...
We have flying cars right now they're called helicopters. You just don't have one because they're expensive.
Yeah, as the pinnacle of human achievement, we need to bring traffic congestion to the skies.
shaving machines will have more blades
I wish they'd just work out how many blades is the optimum number of blades, and then put that number of blades on. Why are we doing this iterative design approach.
My guess: Electric vehicles everywhere, protests, more linux users, and portless phones will be the norm
Edit: Oh yeah privacy is dead or at least much more harder to obtain
This is something that I feel like Brave New World got a lot more right. In that book, people’s pleasures are their prisons.
More Linux users is really a coin flip in my mind. It feels like Linux had more users in 2016 than now. Linux had more games natively support it than today and proton for be had been really hit or miss. We'll see if steam os ever comes to the desktop because I could see that being a major benefit to the Linux market but I don't see it significantly growing before then on desktops.
Yes, you always could. That's not my point at all. Linux in general has been less stable through updates than Windows in my expense and in a lot of people's experience. Steam os preserves root and wipes all packages that aren't supported in the base install every update. So it forces stability. This is the length Valve has gone to in order to make Linux stable. Android is also stable in that same way. By making root fs essentially read only.
To make Linux more stable you have to reduce user choice and a lot of users are okay with this.
The futuristic world of 2033 will be very different from our current primitive one. Humans will be seven foot tall with thumbs as long as fingers. Mars will have been fully terraformed, whilst there'll be hundreds of vast floating cities on Venus. A Dyson swarm will encircle the solar system just beyond Neptune's orbit. Humanity will communicate telepathically as one with AI. We still won't understand cats.
With the amount of accidents and deaths drivers cause on the ground I'd rather flying cars not exist.
Yeah… If two cars collide in mid air, you’re going to see some burning steel raining on your roof and backyard. What a lovely thought.
That must mean that the cats will have transcended by then if such advanced humans could still not understand them. Welp, guess my only option is still blink slowly and pay them katzen the respect they expect
We will likely have hit 1.5 + degrees of warming in 10 years time so our society may look quite different. It's likely that our supply chains will be disrupted by this and become more localised as rising temperatures / intensifying weather events impact our capacity to grow / distribute as much food as we do now. There may potentially be Pacific Nations that no longer exist due to sea level rise. We will likely also see the beginning of a significant climate refugee crisis that nations in the global north will struggle to respond to.
I grilled dinner tonight out on our deck wearing a painters mask because the smoke from the wildfires around here is so thick it looks like it's pissing rain outside. Only when I caught myself in the mirror with my plate, mask and tongs did I start to think, this seems a little odd.
I watched a documentary about this recently. The franchise wars should be coming up soon that allows all restaurants to become Taco Bell.
I think I watched the same one. I think the three seashells will revolutionise the bathroom experience.
uhh huhuuhhhuhh Hey guys, get this. This guys doesn't know how the three sea shells work!
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The developed world will run out of charity.
We’ve spent the last 300 years essentially looting resources and labor from poorer parts of the world. And when they finally decide that enough is enough, that they want a piece of the pie, they won’t be able to get it.
Climate refugees will be killed at closely guarded border crossings. Fishing boats will be torpedoed. Encampments will be burned.
In “rich” countries, the poor will be gradually cut off. Their labor value will decrease even further, and there won’t be anything left for them. In some places, public housing and healthcare will allow them to limp on, until many are killed by the next pandemic.
The wealthy will enjoy what they have, their lives barely interrupted. The world will not look very different to them.
More climate refugees, more crop failures due to worsening climate change, more deaths due to climate change
In the west and culturally, a post-boomer period will have begun. And I think there’ll be continued evaluation of what mistakes that era made especially as climate change looms as an increasingly damaging debt. In a similar vein, the relationship with capitalism and big corps is, I think, going to get messy and more polarised, in part because the mistakes we’ve made will be hard to disentangle for many.
Overall, I suspect that for many paying attention, the downfall of the west will seem more and more plausible and closer and that will create a contentious atmosphere.
Downfall of the West relative to who? The whole world is impacted by climate change and the West is best positioned to manage its effects.
Well at first glance the West seems very well suited to buffer the effects, The last decade shows that it is hyper sclerotic and unwilling to give even the most minor concessions to adapt to change. This will be US centric, but the US was kind of behind on this trend (e.g. Orban, Erdogan, the AfD, etc. came before Trump). The only way the political system can function is by expanding authoritarian repression. No matter which party is in charge we have to keep expanding the military and police to fight the boogeyman (China, Russia, Republican Fascism, Democratic Deep State, etc.) and only appeals to voters/platforms are by how we need to fight back the horrors of the other party (fascism and the end of Democracy, Woke-ism and Democrat conspiracies). This fundamentally comes from an unwillingness to improve or maintain the standard of living of most, but would rather use violence to keep the lower orders and economically superfluous in line. Ironically, the more problems that we face, the more that the political system is converging and unwilling to adapt. This means that in actual policy both parties have been converging closer to each other (Biden has not deviated from Trump's immigration policy, and is in fact, working towards Obama's record as Deporter in Chief, has clawed back pandemic protections and relief even from the low bar Trump set, has been funding police using federal programs and therefore more anti-BLM than Trump). But for electoral and political identity reasons, the more that both parties are far-right fascist parties aligned on policy, their rhetoric and political maneuvers have to be more polarized.
So, even though in external challenges and capacity on paper are in the West's favor, I really think we cannot count out the institutional decay and how every political institution is hell-bent against ever adapting to changing conditions other than strengthening the police-state.
It's the Onion, but I think this demonstrates a metaphorical truth about how Neoliberalism of the last 40 years removed any state capacity to deal with crises and changing conditions: https://www.theonion.com/something-about-the-way-society-was-exposed-as-complete-1846251067
I did say "overall", it wasn't premised entirely on climate change. My concern is that the systems of government, influence and leadership have been pretty badly corrupted. No other region or culture needs to be better for this to be true ... all cultures/civilisations have periods of decay without "dying" or being conquered.
If we wanted to, sure. I mean, we like you and me want to, but we have no say. We were also supposedly "best positioned to manage a pandemic" and just look how that turned out. I know I'm not saying anything particularly novel here, but the capitalist response to covid has been a trial balloon for the capitalist response to climate change, and the results are pretty grim. As long as there's more profit to be made at the top by monetizing the rot, the problems will never be addressed.
We're definitely going to see jobs affected by ChatGPT and the like. It's an open question of "Can LLMs do things as well as humans?" across the board, but when have you seen a company turn down a deal like "slightly shittier, but costs pennies on the dollar and doesn't have any pesky 'rights'"?
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With all the dystopian content I've been consuming lately I'd say we're heading to an age of
Mass surveilance
Regionalistic Economies in place of globalism
Widening wealth disparity
Intensified distrust of our governments
That is if the tensions in Asia Pacific don't turn into an all out conflict ( Live in PH )
Let me be a bit more optimistic:
Mass surveillance
I think we're already there, and despite the fact you can see laws signed that would point to more surveillance, you can't ban encryption effectively. It's kinda hard to ban maths, much harder than weed or booze, and see how they went. Point is, these laws IMO drive awareness of the issue, and everyone can just encrypt their stuff easily, and enforcement of a ban on that is near impossible.
Regionalistic Economies in place of globalism
That's the geopolitical dream of some countries ... but I don't see the current world order in trade buckling. That said, let's say that the current world order changes by the USD losing the world's biggest reserve currency status, what then? Will some countries simply not trade with others because of that? Maybe some pecking orders will rearrange themselves, but no one is interested in destroying the system, people just want their country to dictate instead of the US.
Widening wealth disparity
I don't think it can widen much more, as the pendulum swings both ways. See how socio-economic woes destabilized the US. We either fix the billionaire problem in a legal orderly fashion, or it resolves itself in an uglier way. It can't get much worse than this without social order breaking down, and then it's all moot. The rich can move to their New Zealand bunkers or the Moon to escape the mob, it's not that much different from them dying or going to prison as far as the rest of the world is concerned.
Intensified distrust of our governments
Have we ever trusted them? And to be honest, should we trust them? I mean I think governments are less untrustworthy than corporations, but still, they have power, and thus should be scrutinized. And besides, the loonies who always vote for the biggest idiot already don't trust the government. If this growing distrust results in more participation in politics from decent people who just want to live their lives, that's a good thing.
I think wealth disparity can get much worse than this. People used to be enslaved and forced into serfdom. The people on top wouldn't have to win if the people revolted, they just have to not lose and let the people who already struggle die from starvation. Such a scenario is highly unpredictable and personally I still think the people would win, but it's definitely an uphill battle that's getting harder the more we remain passive.
Ten years is really a pretty small jump. It's not like things are wildly different today than in 2013.
Climate change is worse, US politics more polarized, phones are bigger, computers are faster, etc. But if someone went to sleep in 2013 and woke up in 2023, it might take them a little bit to notice the changes.
Heat dome wasn't a word in 2013. Fire weather meant a dry day, not a tornado forming inside of a wild fire.
Social media was already massive, it was just primarily Facebook and Twitter (Arab Spring heavily involved social media). The US tea party movement had been around for a few years, some people were still very jazzed up about Affordable Care Act, only part of the defense of marriage act had been overturned and lawsuits would continue for a few more years. Conservatives hated Obama and were already talking about taking their country back.
Most everything in the US is just extrapolation plus some pandemic fuel.
In 10 years we went through a huge jump. Mass use of smart phones, new PoS systems, the internet has become overly censored, forest fires like we have never seen before, covid, powerful handhelds, AI... Things are exponential right now
Smart phones were already huge. The first Pixel came out in 2013, replacing the Nexus, the iPhone was on the 5 and 5s, and the Galaxy S4 was released.
Covid, AI, larger fires are the main things out of your examples that have changed dramatically, but I don’t think any of them have been exponential changes. For most people, covid is probably the largest, and if they did not lose anybody and are healthy themselves, the main thing that changed is potential wfh options and everything being more expensive.
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Thank you. I feel like I’m talking crazy pills reading this thread.
The world wasn’t a terribly different place ten years ago. Sure, some things are more messed up now, and we have some neat new widgets. But i seriously doubt Apple Pay, the steam deck, and fancy autocorrect I mean chatGPT, have really shifted the world that much.
More people having smart phones has lead to a societal change where they’re becoming more and more necessary for everyday life, but I could still love my life without one just fine, and many of my older family members are doing just that. I think I’ve used Apple Pay like once in my life when I forgot my wallet at home, and chatGPT reminds me of talking to a dementia patient more than Skynet.
Now if the question was what the year 2053 would be like, that would be way more interesting. Back in 1993, I don’t think anyone would have accurately guessed what was going on now. Being able to browse the internet on your phone would have seemed nearly pointless and infinitely painful. The internet and internet advertising being a deciding factor in national elections would sound crazy. Electric cars being somewhat affordable and practical would sound like we live in the jetsons.
I think 2053 is gonna be wild. Hopefully I don’t die of dehydration or catastrophic weather before we get there.
It feels like some people are imagining 2003 instead of 2013, which I get, in my mind 2003 was only about ten years ago too.
Still a matter of degrees. Smart phones were 57% of the market in 2013. Not sure what point of sale system advancements in the last decade you're talking about that are very revolutionary - we've certainly had online connected credit cards systems for decades. Really, all those things are pretty evolutionary in the span we're taking about, with AI poised to be the most impactful for hasn't been in the period.
Hopefully not a live action Cyberpunk 2077
While i know I wouldn't make it for very long, fuck yeah I wanna see a samurai show!
At least I might get to cruise with the valentinos and maybe get hooked up with some sick body mods
We're already in a dystopia, it's been that way for a while now, it'll just get even more dystopian.
yeah pretty much. Eventually somethings gotta give, but its a matter of if we live to see it or not. I don't think it will for me, but that's what Lenin said in January 1917 so, you know. Never know!
The same as now but more dilapidated, desperate, and annoying, if you're lucky enough to not have everything changed by climate catastrophe in that time or torn apart by war
Oh, and people won't hang out outside much in most places for much of the year, we'll all collectively shelter indoors, as discomfort from heat becomes common and people start adapting to constant dangerous heatwaves
Don't forget the oppressively dense smoke covering all of North America every summer, simultaneously during extreme heat waves, meaning that the cheap leaky window AC systems found in normally cool areas will make people have to choose between overheating and coughing.
We will start to see major companies collapse when they realize too late hoarding wealth means no one can buy anything.