Do you remember when Ukraine’s counteroffensive was starting? How confident you were that they could win?
Russia will struggle to adapt to the increased capability Western tanks will bring to Ukraine. But the tanks currently on offer—thirty-one US Abrams, fourteen UK Challengers, and fourteen German Leopards—will not turn the tide of the war. There are reports that France, Poland, and Canada will also provide tanks to Ukraine, although how many and when is unknown. For Western assistance to enable a Ukrainian military victory, four things must happen. First, Western countries would need to provide enough tanks to give Ukraine a devastating offensive punch. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has put this number at 300–500 tanks, far more than the fifty-eight currently on offer. Tanks are most effective when formed into battalions (thirty to forty tanks as Ukraine structures them) and brigades (ninety to 120 tanks). Zelensky’s number, which he certainly got from his military commanders, seems designed to allow Ukraine to form four new brigades of Western tanks, each composed of three battalions. Used properly, four new tank brigades would represent a ground offensive capability that could be decisive.
They never got the tanks in the numbers laid out above. Not even close. This was all predicted ahead of time.
Ukraine won't lose outright at this point. Russia is not capable of mounting a large offensive anymore. There is no chance they get fully absorbed into Russia. However, there are ranges of winning and losing that are on the table; without more support, they're not going to be able to retake land to the east and south, nor retake Crimea.