https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/briefing/ukraine-peace-deal.html
What a Ukraine peace deal might look like.
I can't wait for the Winter War-tier copium from liberals that will come after this. "Ukraine won despite losing its territory and having to stay neutral as Russia demanded because Ukraine remains independent and not completely annexed into the new Putino-Tsarist Soviet Union 2.0. Also now everyone knows that the Russian army sux because they took 2 years to win a war against a smaller country (also the US army still rocks in comparison despite spending 10 times longer in Afghanistan and losing)".
I expect that's precisely the narrative we'll get as long as there's anything left of Ukraine in the end. The secondary narrative is going to be that Ukraine would've totally won if not for those darn republicans blocking additional 60b spending.
Apt analogy, and the whole dynamic with Ukraine has a lot of parallels with Vietnam actually.
Ukraine really might have had a much better chance if it could have borrowed an extra $60bn to pay for the same 84 shells, all the stores marked "illegal weapons" 'left over' from before the Geneva convention, and the 3 tanks left in the warehouse. Nobody wants to be at war paying pre-war prices. What will the neighbours think? Don't answer. We already know—it's highly unfashionable.
Right, like the elephant in the room is that the west lacks industrial capacity to produce weapons and ammunition at the rate they're consumed. Dumping more money into this doesn't solve that problem. Also, how is another 60b going to accomplish what hundreds of billions they pumped into Ukraine over the past two years couldn't accomplish.
"This is a massive win for the Ukrainian spirit, because Putin actually wanted to capture Kiev before he dies of cancer and MS, but didn't get it. Obviously we we need to record this in the history books as a glorious win for capitalism Ukraine. What is a donbass?"
somehow the russians were able to capture and hold onto a bunch of ukraine using only shovels and refrigerator parts
And to think that Ukraine could have given up Luhansk and Donetsk early on, avoided the destruction and demographic collapse. Now anything of value will be sold off in hopes that some of that money will go towards rebuilding it.
“It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”
― Henry Kissinger
The tragedy is that he lived a comfortable life without ever being prosecuted for his crimes.
Yes, that is definitely true. I would have loved to see him lose everything but instead he had an insanely comfortable life with nothing further to need.
If nothing else, I feel he lived just long enough to know that all his work would be undone in the end.
Not even given up. The original plan vented was more autonomy, respect russian language and persecute who commited crimes post euromaidan. Crimea status though they won't get back.
I suspect the 'peace deal' will eventually look remarkably like a 'complete unconditional surrender'..
At this point I can't see how it's going to be anything other than that. Russia's in too deep now to stop, and they've already won the economic war. So, there's really nothing the west can do at this point to reverse the situation.
Ukraine and Western media will still claim victory because "Russia did not conquer all of Ukraine and genocide all of Ukrainians". There will be no reflection on failures or missed opportunities for an earlier peace.
Tbf I suspect their definition of "neutral" is different from yours or mine. Sweden was "neutral". Finland was "neutral". Switzerland, Austria, many of the offshores, I'm sure. What did it mean in practice? Diddly squat.
How many billions of dollars did it take for the West to accept Russia’s initial demands?
Look at this from US perspective though. They managed to successfully decouple Europe from Russian energy, and get them terrified of being invaded by Russia. A bunch of European industry moved to US boosting the economy, and the military industry can now sell weapons to Europe for decades on end. Seems like a pretty good result all in all.
It's a good short term result- medium and long-term, this will surely have the effect little different from dousing the Euros with gas and setting it on fire- though who knows how things will specifically play out.
Personally I suspect Europe will not be escaping the US' thrall anytime soon (as a Canadian, same here). But the relevance of western Europe is no doubt only going to plummet from here onwards, and the current set of US puppets will probably have to be replaced in the decade or so to come- likely several times, though I can't see the puppet masters actually changing for now. Whatever it is, Europe's future looks more bleak, more unstable, and far less capable of filling its roles as imperial auxiliaries, as it has prior- and if the Europeans ever do actually start taking charge of their own destiny and realizing how badly Uncle Sam has screwed them over, then anything is possible.
Completely agree, US is cannibalizing its most important geopolitical ally, and this is going to have a huge negative implication for US going forward.
the stomach is a hotbed of foreign material immigrating into our precious bodily fluids. it's suspect. build the wall^H^H^H^Hgag. shoot to kill.
You joke, but the liberal world order did convince everyone in the west to use antibacterial spray/wipes and antibiotics to such an extent that it amounted to a war against that hotbed of foreign material. Everyone's gut is ruined and good luck with infections. But don't worry, the chemical manufacturers got their line to go up.
On the other hand, I'm wondering what the U.S is prbly thinking, at the prospects of it...
I guess at least it'll open more wars for the Republicans to start, after Dems had their turn...
It's really hard to tell what the thought process in US is. So far, what we can conclusively say is that everything they've done has eroded US position geopolitically. So,I hope they keep on doing whatever they're doing there.
A better deal for Ukraine would give it back at least some of its land, plus a promise that the United States and Europe would help defend it against Russia. Perhaps then Putin would think twice about further attacks. In this scenario, Ukraine might not join NATO or the European Union immediately, the prospect of which helped drive Russia’s invasion in the first place.
What is this? It's astonishing that they admit to that much. I usually I get called a tankie immediately if I point out that there were reasons and the invasion was predictable.
But of course they still expect Ukraine to join EU / NATO, just not "immediately". Which they already are in all but name. With all the weapons flowing in and all the debts accrued Ukraine must basically be owned by the US / EU now. They are going to privatize the shit out of them.
What a waste. But even with a bad deal this would be a geopolitical win for the US Empire. With climate change advancing food prices will rise and Ukraine as a breadbasket is a major win. Plus having it as a buffer for whatever chaos will surely ensue. Only Ukraine, Russia and the tax payer looses.
With climate change advancing food prices will rise and Ukraine as a breadbasket is a major win.
They get whatever remains of a breadbasket- the global south, ie. the true international community gets the separation of Russia from its empty dreams of being accepted by the west, the accelerated death of the petrodollar and the beginnings of new payment systems through BRICS+, and plenty of other benefits.
Besides, that breadbasket (whatever remains of it) is going to need gas for modern industrial farming. All of Europe is going to need energy for that and more actually, and the cheap sources are now gone (and the non-US sources are now collectively working together). And whatever remains of Ukraine is going to be as stable as one can expect a Banderite-infested Blackrock fiefdom to turn out- frankly, I'd expect a (this time wholly 100% correct- because none of this was even necessary) stab-in-the-back narrative to start playing out, and it might wind up a serious headache and exporter of terrorism to the rest of Europe when this is all over.
wind up a serious headache and exporter of terrorism to the rest of Europe
Further intensifying and serving to justify hatred and paranoia towards people of post soviet descent. Sounds "just as planned"
Agreed, that said- as a non-white (Asian) who was raised and lives in the west- these countries will find excuses to justify hatred and paranoia, or they'll create them. It is as natural to western society, and one of the primary characteristics of it and their specific brands of imperialism and neo-imperialism. Post-Soviet and Slavic people could present themselves unilaterally as slaves, belly-up in submission, and "allow" all kinds of atrocities to happen to them without a word of resistance, and the west would still find some way to hate and fear them- to justify their behavior towards them, if nothing else. In other words- nothing of (actual) value was lost, because this was going to happen one way or another. Same with the Islamophobic vitriol, or anti-Asian hate and Sinophobia, and the list goes on- if there had been no resistance or reciprocity, it still would not matter- the west would find a way to demonize and dehumanize even the most incapable of retaliation, in order to offset their own subconscious guilt and justify their continued actions.
If you ask me, this may be "just as planned" (because western states and institutions all work towards these results) but I'm looking forward to the time ahead- if you were to ask me, already increasingly in sight- where western society is relegated to where it belongs, as these are the most racist, imperialist, (actually) barbaric societies in existence, responsible for the bulk of modern evil and that of the past half millennia. Where all those sensible in the west and with means start heading elsewhere and rejecting the demagoguery they were raised within- already if you ask me, this is increasingly becoming the case, as neoliberalism has begun inflicting upon these imperial cores, even just a small fraction of the evils it has always wrought elsewhere, and meanwhile the greater world at large is increasingly able to resist. It won't matter quite as much as before how much the crackerverse can hate and fear post-Soviet peoples, if their societies increasingly are unattractive for those of post-Soviet descent, if their countries' narratives of hatred are increasingly falling apart and their contradictions are beginning to tear their own societies apart, and if their own people are even increasingly going so far as to be the ones to emigrate to post-Soviet states, and increasingly looking up to post-Soviet (or better yet, Soviet) culture- or any culture- as better than their own (which it is- all cultures may have their path to travel, but I will argue that western European culture, and Anglo-Saxon culture in particular, with 500 years of racism, imperialism, genocide, and all evils known to humanity being celebrated and indoctrinated into each successive generation, is undeniably inferior and will remain so until it undergoes a thorough cultural revolution that would make those undergone in the Soviet Union or China blush- and that's a hill I will absolutely die on).
Yeah I'd expect something similar to the "free market shock" after the fall of the USSR. But I can't honestly judge how true this narrative of "nazi" ideology is in Ukraine. Just like the US, Russia has a reason and a track record to spread lies about this. But even if there is just a kernel of it there it could easily grow after the war is over and the situation turns into one of austerity and privatization.
Bandera is a national hero and a holiday. The commander of the UAF keeps making selfies with his picture and is the “Nordic runes enjoyer” himself. It’s hard to take a photo of any UAF soldier without swastikas or similar Nazi memorabilia. They literally have entire military formations openly devoted to Nazism.
Yes, every country has Nazis, but since WW2 no government ran that far and that open with it, not to mention intentionally arming and organizing them.
But I can’t honestly judge how true this narrative of “nazi” ideology is in Ukraine.
Hell, just look up all the pre-2022 articles on Ukraine's Nazi problem in western MSM and you'll have plenty of examples to go off of. If you want to dig further still, you can look up what Ukraine's Nazis (now with state sanction as part of the military) have been doing to the country's minorities, those living in the eastern parts of the country, etc. since 2014. Look up the various different Nazi units- even Wikipedia doesn't bother to hide the continuity between various Nazi organizations and their units integrated into the Ukronazi army- look up Azov as the most famous one, or Right Sector's "Ukranian Volunteer Corps," or what was done with the remnants of Aidar battalion, Tornado police battalion, etc- these are just the ones that come to mind, it's a never-ending list that even the west is not putting all that much effort in hiding.
This is a state which- as someone else noted- celebrates a literal Nazi (Bandera) and props up monuments and museums to him and other Nazi collaborators across the country. None of this is a secret.