It's kind of hilarious how even mainstream western media is now openly saying that Russia is winning and that defeating Russia is magical thinking, but we still have hordes of libs running around who haven't caught up with the latest official narrative.
I have at this point convinced my supervisor that communists have a limited capacity to predict the future, not because I talk to him about history and politics through a lens of scientific socialism all the time (I do, he's very cool for a boomer lib) but mostly just because I am always way ahead of the news cycle as he consumes it.
I find systemic thinking is one of the key differences between the liberal world model and the dialectical one. Communists recognize that the structure of the system creates pressures on society, and people act according to those pressures. Meanwhile, the whole system evolves based on collective actions. So you have this dialectical progression towards the future of a dynamic and ever changing system.
On the other hand, liberals reject systemic thinking and see the society as simply a group of individuals each acting in their own best interest completely independent of one another. In this model there is no overarching system in play, and everything becomes a discrete event. Things like wars and economic crashes just randomly happen because of some random event like the pandemic or terrorist attacks. There is never a question of how things evolved to a point of a crisis and how things could've been done differently.
The liberal world view is infantile and we're now seeing what an utter disaster this ideology has produced globally.
communists have a limited capacity to predict the future
They literally do. I was attracted to Dialectical Materialism because it's pretty similar to models I used to predict the future before my political awakening. Once you realize just how predictable the world is, you start to notice patterns well before they manifest themselves.
Just like with Marx Kapital, I think even non-communists should learn about it just because of how useful it is in the real world.
very openly too, here are a couple of examples
Lmao at the first one
"The west needs a new strategy against Russia, containment"
Aka setting it up ahead of time so they can paint Russia taking the territory they said they were going to in advance and then holding it is actually a win for us.
It's kind of impressive how smoothly they transitioned from talking about Ukraine marching to Moscow to this whole nobody is winning and it's actually a stalemate narrative. What's going to be really interesting to see is the mental gymnastics they're going to have to start doing once Russia goes on an actual offensive. This whole stalemate narrative never explains why Russia would be interested in any sort of a frozen conflict where the west gets to rearm Ukraine and to rebuild their army.
Is Russia going to go on another offensive? My understanding is they pretty much have what they wanted and are just setting up defenses now until the west gets bored of selling ukraine tanks, continuously improving their negotiating position for when the war ends.
I don't think their goal was ever taking all of ukraine outside of the liberal think pieces that say they're going to use it as a springboard to try to roll tanks into Paris.
They've strongly hinted that a big offensive is coming in the near future. Some of the recent comments talked about Odessa and Kharkov regions, there was also a recruitment video that talked about taking Kiev. Some other indirect hints have been that Russia stopped exporting diesel likely indicating they're stockpiling it, and they also slowed down with missile strikes which means they're piling them up for a potential big strike that could be the opening of the offensive.
Ukraine has basically blown through all the weapons the west managed to scrape up for the offensive at this point, and this goes hand in hand with suffering serious losses in manpower. The west now admits that they can't keep supplying Ukraine at the same level as before, and there is no time to train up a new army even if people were available.
On the other hand, Russian industry is rapidly expanding and the army size is estimated at around 400k at this point. This puts Russia in a very strong position to do an offensive of their own now. I don't expect that Russia plans to take all of Ukraine, but I expect what will happen is that Russia will create a land corridor all the way to Transnistria in the south which involves taking Odessa. And then they will take more eastern regions in the north. They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest.
These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
Russia is doing shaping operations right now all across the front line, and they're likely waiting for the mud season to be over and for the ground to harden before starting major operations. Once the ground hardens next month, we'll see if Russia decides to make a big push.
talked about Odessa and Kharkov regions
Those two would be logical, both have significant Russian minority and a lot more of Russian-speakers, so they always were pro-Russian. Also Odessa is a major port, economic center, and strategic city.
They will likely stop in western Ukraine which were formerly parts of Galicia and where anti Russian sentiment is the strongest. These would become a land locked rump state that the west will be left to deal with. The west will have to choose either letting it collapse economically resulting in a flood of refugees to Europe, or having it become an economic black hole that will need constant propping up.
What worries me is what will the remaining neo-nazi do? Given that fascists are cowards, there is surely going to be a lot of them who will see the writing on the wall and flee the battle, in which case there might be a bunch of them left after the war end, probably in this western region. What will these neo-nazi salty of having just lost their "glorious" ethnostate do? My best guess is that they will probably try to reorganize whatever effectives they have left, maybe reorganize the ukrainian government if they still have control of it of try to get back control if not. As the nationalists that they are, they would want to get back the rest of ukraine, but being of course unable to do so they will resort to carry out terror campaign in an act of revenge against both Russia for having invaded them and the EU and NATO for not having supported them enough of for having backstabbed them (since nazi love blaming their Ls on imaginary foe acting from the shadows). They will use western ukraine as a base to launch these terror campaign, making them like some kind of european ISIS.
The goal of modern propaganda is to get people to repeat it even after it's no longer official ideology.
I wouldn't be surprised if those were actually their own losses projected verbatim.
Except maybe the submarine, because their only one defected to Russia along with captain and most crew in 2014.
They're actually concealing the numbers. We all know about the massive Russian submarine losses around Bakhmut (a city which, by the way, had absolutely NO STRATEGIC VALUE, and was attacked only to appease Putler's vanity).
Bakhmut (a city which, by the way, had absolutely NO STRATEGIC VALUE, and was attacked only to appease Putler's vanity).
We defended it with everything we had as a joke.
Except maybe the submarine
"RUSSIAN WAR SHIP! GO FCK YOURSELF!" [video game footage of a sub being blown up]
this is a recent graphic, right? i've never seen them use the term "occupiers" when referring to the russian military, how much do you wanna bet this is their sad attempt at co-opting the conversation around the "israeli" occupation?
0%. The term "Russian occupiers" has been often used since 2014, at least in Ukrainonphonic publishers. It is also popular to use the term "мова окупанта" (occupier's language) to refer to Russian language.
The Russians have lost a similar amount of tanks to drones? Drones, the things that explode if they're being used correctly? Those drones?
Yeah, really believable.
I think they mean the type of drone which flies over, drops some bombs/shoots something, and flies back. Or the type that flies over to provide intel
So what I'm getting from this, since it is obviously 100% accurate, is that they did 99% of the damage in the first 15 months of the war and have been getting absolutely slaughtered in the last 9 months, barely able to mount any defense at all.
Well if that's the case, they definitely don't need more money, they are doing fine.
No, it's St. George cross, one of the most prominent symbols of the old Imperial Russian military, used by Ukraine military too (and most of east Slavic neonazis as dogwhistle because it is analogue to iron cross, just instead of hitlerite opression it symbolise tsarist opression)
Kinda. That shape gets used by a bunch of armed forces. The arms of the German iron cross are kinda pinched in the middle.
