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Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine in just 2 days — it now says the war will last at least 3 years

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-says-war-will-last-until-2025-wanted-to-beat-ukraine-in-days-2023-9

US intelligence assessed that Russia could take Kyiv in just three days. Russia's Defense Minister now says the war could last until at least 2025.

Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine in just 2 days — it now says the war will last at least 3 years

Shoigu added that Russia could achieve its military goals with "consistent implementation of the measures in the action until 2025."

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and allies like Shoigu have repeatedly stressed the need to keep Ukraine inside Russia's sphere of influence, and to defeat what they describe as Ukraine's "Nazi regime".

44 comments

athos77

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2025

Yeah, they're hoping to install enough Republicans in the 2024 US elections that the US will stop supplying Ukraine.

MedicatedMaybe

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Ding ding ding!

echodot

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They will still get weapons from the EU though because Ukraine used to supply huge amount of the grain supply and the EU wants that back.

And the UK will continue to supply weapons like storm shadow missiles, tank ammunition, and the 3D printed mini helicopter drone things because the right wing party are going to lose the next election. The Russians seemed to have lost interest in trying to influence those elections.

athos77

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They'll still get weapons from the EU and European countries, true, but about half of all their military aid has come from States. The EU simply doesn't have the capability to replace that amount of aid.

JJROKCZ

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Seems the pentagon has no intention of stopping no matter what the legislative branch says, it will take the executive to tell them to stop before they maybe do. They might just “lose” some equipment in Ukraine like they’ve lost billions who knows where

InEnduringGrowStrong

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Russia can end the war within 2 days, even now.
They could just... fucking leave and never come back.

drmoose

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But then they reveal themselves to be weak and straight up idiots. Theres no going back until Russian people get their shit together and get the hold of their country but decades of brainwashing and indifference is preventing any meaningful change. It's a lost country.

krey

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Onioneer

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They have revealed that already

drewofdoom

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Is it brainwashing and indifference, though? Could also be fear of a hostile government. Russia isn't exactly known for its fair treatment of protesters, dissidents, and activists.

drmoose

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I just came back from SEA and it's full or Russians either running away from war or pretending everything's fine. Russian culture is just so extremely toxic that people have completely lost any sort responsibility or sense of understanding. It's all either somebody else's fault or "nothing you can change" sort of mentality. It's not just a few bad apples.

Blursty

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And then NATO will disband. I am very smart.

grabyourmotherskeys

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I was told by some mouth foaming Putin fan on the other site that when the tanks were running out of fuel and breaking down on the road in the early days that it was all part of the plan. Yup, all part of the plan. Sigh. Turns out it wasn't and here we are.

At some point, we have to take the toys away from the children. No more war.

Pons_Aelius

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And that was followed by

"They haven't sent in their real elite forces yet, these are just conscripts to soak up the Ukraine forces and ammunition"

And Then

"They never wanted to capture Kyiv (of course it was not spelt this way...). It was just a feint"

And so on as each new copium point replaced the last one.

Krause

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At some point, we have to take the toys away from the children. No more war.

agreed, stop giving the children (ukraine) toys ("game-changing" western equipment that doesn't change the outcome of the conflict)

MxM111

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This logic of "please do not give Ukraine weapons, so that Russia can quickly capture it and thus there will be peace on earth" always seems to me as insane. How people seriously can suggest this is beyond my understanding. The only plausible explanation I can find is trolling.

squiblet

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It's some award-winning Neville Chamberlain style strategy.

IfRatsCouldSing

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Look at their instance. Almost all the anti-ukrainian trolls are coming from the same instance.

Kata1yst

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Well now there's lemmygrad AND hexbear. Both are chock full of this insanity

aport

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Lemmygraders are tankies who have never read a history book.

Hexbear are tankies who have read many, but reject their content as CIA propaganda.

MxM111

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Ah! He is a tankie from lemmygrad.

TheFrirish

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lemmygrad again what a surprise...

flying_monkies

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(“game-changing” western equipment that doesn’t change the outcome of the conflict)

You're actually right, they won't change the outcome.

It'll just make the Ukrainian victory quicker than it would have been without the equipment.

Krause

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Repeating fantasies over and over doesn't make them materialize, Ukraine can't win a war of attrition against Russia.

Icalasari

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Repeating fantasies over and over doesn’t make them materialize

And yet you keep repeating the fantasy of letting Russia win

Krause

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And yet you keep repeating the fantasy of letting Russia win

It's not "letting", there are no other choices other than to accept that Ukraine can't win or spiral down into further delusion.

https://archive.is/2023.01.19-140835/https://www.csis.org/analysis/rebuilding-us-inventories-six-critical-systems

https://archive.is/2023.05.26-112050/https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-03-01/ukraine-outgunned-10-to-1-in-massive-artillery-battle-with-russia.html

https://archive.is/2023.09.13-202734/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html

flying_monkies

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there are no other choices

There are all sorts of choices.

Russia could come to their senses and leave.

Russia could continue wasting their resources until they have to accept unconditional surrender.

Russia or an ally could go even more pants on head stupid than they already are and do something that triggers a NATO Article 5 response.

flying_monkies

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Repeating fantasies over and over doesn’t make them materialize,

You really need to feel this in what's left of your soul

Ukraine can’t win a war of attrition against Russia.

And yet, they are. If the Russian command had any sense, they'd roll back to their side of the border.

fiat_lux

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I've never understood why people think wars will be short.

Number of global conflicts 'ended' since 2000 : 26.
List of those that lasted under 10 years:

Russo-Georgian War (11 days)
Wagner Uprising (1 day)

Number of ongoing conflicts: 59
List of those which are under 10 years old:

Russo-Ukrainian War (9 years, 7 months and 1 week)
Yemeni Civil War (9 years, 1 week and 4 days)

Numbers derived from this likely incorrect Wikipedia list of conflicts, but there's no way anyone truly agrees on the list details for something like this anyway. The overall point is, anyone advocating for War is advocating for a 10 years minimum commitment to destruction. And that's before considering environmental effects, long-term trauma, etc. Never trust anyone who says that any war will not last a very long time because of military prowess.

flying_monkies

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Guess it depends on the definition of "lasts". With Iraq, Coalition forces rolled through the third largest military in under two months.

Germany need 35 days to take Poland and six weeks for Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and France in WWII.

Russia figured they were on par with other modern militaries for their special smoothbrain operation. Why wouldn't it be fast? 🙄

fiat_lux

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I recall the internet claims that Afghanistan would be a few weeks, and also Iraq v2 - because of the US' military superiority. It doesn't really matter whose military it is in whatever coalition, or how much funding they get. It's all just long-term destruction.

flying_monkies

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Don't recall anyone saying it would be a few weeks. Don't doubt some people said it would only be a few weeks, just don't remember it.

From the start of the invasion, it was two months one week and three days to topple the Taliban government.

Unfortunately, then next 19 years were apparently a waste since the regime that replaced the Taliban didn't actually want to fight for themselves.

NigelFrobisher

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They actually only have to hold on until Trump gets back in.

drmoose

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Man Americans really like to make themselves important like that lol

aeronmelon

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Sure hope they all grabbed a Snickers bar.

ryathal

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MxM111

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For the strategy to be called successful, it needs first to succeed.

Num10ck

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even if they had, they had no means of holding it.

ryathal

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If they had enough it's possible that other nations would have not bothered fighting to take it back. That's more or less how they took Crimea in the first place, they were fortifying a position before most countries could react.

Showroom7561

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If Russia keeps this invasion up for another few years, they'll run out of soldiers. Are they expecting to put women, children, and farm animals on the front line when that happens?

zephyreks

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Are people ignoring that Russia is substantially more populated than Ukraine? Ukraine isn't winning a war of attrition.

KevonLooney

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But Russians don't want to fight. They want to win, just don't want to fight. Those are different. Ukrainians want to take their homes back or defend their families.

Lots of Ukrainians could leave if they wanted. There are Ukrainian refugees in lots of countries, so the path out is paved. I know I would already have left. The Ukrainians left in the country are not going to leave for anything besides nukes.

Icalasari

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children

About that...

Spzi

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If Russia keeps this invasion up for another few years, they’ll run out of soldiers.

Both countries can probably sustain these high losses if they are only willing to keep committed. If we look at WW numbers.

Just a rough calculation: If Ukraine was to send 5% of their population to the front lines, they could lose 200k each year, for more than nine years. Russia obviously more.

Showroom7561

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From what I see based on the numbers, Russia only has around 1.3 million troops (including reserves, and paramilitary, who already showed disloyalty to Putin). Ukraine has around a half million.

But Russian losses have been disproportionately greater, so they could run out of fighters sooner, if things keep up the way they've been. But considering that Ukraine is now getting more advanced weapons and support, Russia could lose more soldiers and high-value targets faster than before.

When you factor in that Russian soldiers have almost no motivation to fight, while Ukrainians have every reason to defend their home, things don't look good for Russia.

What can tip the balance is whether other countries decide to support Russia, then the world would be in trouble.

autotldr

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This is the best summary I could come up with:

In fact, CIA Director Bill Burns told lawmakers weeks after the start of the invasion that Putin's strategy was centered on "seizing Kyiv within the first two days of the campaign."

Shoigu added that Russia could achieve its military goals with "consistent implementation of the measures in the action until 2025."

But, 18 months into the conflict, Russia only occupies parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which it annexed in 2014.

Ukrainian troops are also pushing back hard against Russian forces, focusing their efforts on breaking through Russia's heavily fortified defensive lines across occupied territory in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces are coming under intense pressure from Ukrainian attacks in the southern Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with the Institute for the Study of War, among others, saying in recent commentary that Russian forces are stretched thin and that elite units are sustaining high casualties during counterattacks.

On Tuesday, the ISW said that Russian defenses appeared to lack strength in depth on a key part of the front line where Ukraine has made recent gains.

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