Rishi Sunak admits Tories may not win general election | ITV News
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https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-05/tories-may-not-win-election-sunak-admits-while-claiming-hung-parliament-likely
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-05/tories-may-not-win-election-sunak-admits-while-claiming-hung-parliament-likely
I don't think Starmer is stupid but I think Labour's large polling lead has - paradoxically - encouraged him to be very politically timid, to the detriment of his party and the country.
Broadly speaking the Labour leadership seems to be acting as if, if literally nothing changes between now and election day, then Labour will win a landslide. That means no genuine big new policy announcements, because any policy change is seen as a roll of the dice that could change the polling status quo. Rejoining the single market whilst staying outside the EU could be a popular policy - polling shows that even Labour Leave voters support it by a 53% to 31% margin - and would give an incoming Labour government an actual policy option to help turn around the economy, but Starmer's caution means forgoing this in favour of saying literally nothing novel. The Labour leadership think any change is a risk, and why take a risk when you're already sitting on a polling lead.
In general I'm favourable towards Starmer, and certainly in comparison to what came immediately before him. But on several issues - Europe, electoral reform, Gaza/Israel - he's adopting bad cautious positions to protect the enormous polling lead over the Tories he's stumbled into. These are going to end up doing him more harm than good in the long run.