https://newrepublic.com/article/185858/harris-debate-climate-fracking
Harris’s climate answer was bad by design. And the immigration segments of the debate show why that’s a bad strategy.
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It is almost half. There's a spectrum on the right (as there is on the left of course). The hardcore maga cultists are a little over a third -- like you say, 35-37%. But then there are the conservatives who aren't extremists like them but are still very conservative, so yes, it's almost half the population. Trump has 42-45% who are definitely going to vote for him no matter what--the rest beyond the maga contingent are the conservatives such as the one-issue anti-abortion segment and the rich who want his tax and deregulation policies; they don't care about his character flaws or even preserving democracy for that matter.
There are also some conservatives, not many, who previously voted for him and would again, but have come to recognize that trump is so extreme and dangerous that they either won't vote for him or will hold their nose and vote for a Dem this time, hopefully enough to tip the election in her favor.
Those conservatives are ”moderates” and also vote democrat
https://news.gallup.com/poll/328367/americans-political-ideology-held-steady-2020.aspx