!credibledefense
@sh.itjust.workshttps://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/29007/prigozhins-uprising-in-russia/
https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/ukraines-offensive-and-russias-localized-counterattacks/
In today's episode, Mike looks at the slow progress of the Ukrainian offensive and what, if anything, it means for the course of the war. He also
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep06857?seq=1
JSTOR is a digital library of academic journals, books, and primary sources.
Right now, the signal-to-noise ratio is heavily tilted in favor of noise. But there are a few things that are certain. About 5 hours ago, the commander of Wagner, Denis Prigozhin, claimed that the RUMOD had ordered a missile strike on Wagner fighters. He followed this up with what can only be interpreted as a threat of violence again the MOD. This was followed up by a number of statements by both Prigozhin and other Wagner telegrams backing up his message. Given these threats' public and unambiguous nature, this is very unlikely to be a false flag or 5D chess. Comments like this are at the heart of a state's monopoly on violence. Such an attack can only be responded to by the Russian government as an existential threat. By all indications, this is exactly what has happened. Major generals have come out to publicly condemn Prigozhin, and a warrant has been issued for his arrest. That's the summary of what we know for sure.
As far as on-the-ground information, there is very little to go on at the moment. Apparently columns of vehicles have been spotted in a city near the Russia-Ukraine border, but it is still unclear what units they belong to. Rosgvardia(Russian internal security forces) have clearly been deployed in force and are making themselves known in Moscow and Rostov. Obviously, Ukraine is watching this with great interest, and there have already been reports of advances in the Bakhmut area that could possibly be connected to this. In addition, the US government is clearly taking this seriously, with Biden having reportedly been briefed on the matter.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/six-lessons-from-ukraine-for-japanese-defense-planners/
Japanese leaders have already begun internalizing key lessons from Ukraine. As shown in a triad of strategic documents released last December, Tokyo is
https://www.csis.org/analysis/impact-kakhovka-dam-breach-new-ukrainian-counteroffensive
The Kakhovka Dam breach will not stop a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast this summer, but it will delay such an operation and complicate the task that lies before Ukraine to dislodge Russian forces from fortified positions across the front.
As opposed to conventional munitions, which have a single warhead, cluster munitions operate by dispensing a number of smaller warheads over an area. They are particularly useful against soft and mobile targets, especially those dispersed over a wider area or entrenched in a specific location. However, cluster munitions are banned by most countries due to the risk of unexploded ordinance. In the case of DPICMs, the form of munition most often discussed to be sent to Ukraine, this rate hovers around 2-5%. It’s important to note that Ukraine, Russia, and the US are not signatories to the treaty which banned cluster munitions, and all three possess at least some stockpiles of such munitions. In addition, both Ukraine and Russia have been reported as using cluster munitions during the war. However, Russia’s use of cluster munitions has been significantly greater and appears to have indiscriminately targeted civilian population centers on many occasions. Ukrainian usage has likely been limited by their smaller stockpiles of such weaponry, but the country has used cluster weapons in populated areas in the past, though not with the lack of tactical benefit and disregard for civilian life displayed by the Russians. Ukraine has also been receiving DPICM munitions from Turkey, likely with informal consent from the Biden administration. While I haven’t seen any footage of their use, its likely they have already been deployed somewhere along the front. Neither side has given any indication that they are limiting use based on ethical concerns with tactical munitions.
When discussing DPICM munition aid, it is important to balance the human cost of cluster munitions against the damage that could be caused by a prolonged conflict. Sending DPICMs will unquestionably result in civilians being harmed, now and in the future. It's unpleasant, but it's the truth. However, it is also true that civilians are dying now, to a Russian army that has shown a reckless disregard for human life and is engaging in terror bombing of cities it has no chance of taking. Just because cluster munitions have harm associated with them, does not mean that sending them would not decrease the overall harm of the conflict overall. Furthermore, restrictions on the use of such munitions would go a long way toward minimizing civilian harm while retaining most of their combat effectiveness. DPICMs would be massively useful in clearing trenches, for instance, but such usage has far less risk to civilians than attacking a city.
https://archive.is/QnjAR
https://tnsr.org/2023/05/sweden-finland-and-the-meaning-of-alliance-membership/
Rationalist understandings of military alliances argue that a formal treaty underpinning the security relationship is crucial for deepening and rendering more efficient defense cooperation between countries. However, Sweden’s and Finland’s cooperation with NATO prior to 2022, when the two countries announced their intentions to formally join the alliance, was far more substantial than what rationalist explanations would expect. Traditional approaches to military alliances overlook the importance of ontological, or identity-based, considerations that come with being a formal member of an alliance. Accordingly, not only is signing a treaty functionally important, it is also significant in terms of what it implies for national identity in terms of security policy. For Sweden and Finland, this suggests that the greatest change with NATO membership will be with regard to identity and strategic culture.
https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1671421325930315776?cxt=HHwWgIC2oeS1irIuAAAA