She is the favorite imo a few things to take into account imo:
1- Kamala is also a flawed and bad candidate but the Trump campaign can't attack her on racism and misogyny alone. The dems are lucky that their evil inadequacy towards not protecting abortion now comes to give them the edge. Abortion is a popular issue and Trump doubling down on attacking it with a female president on the line? I think that is a bit too much for the civility cult.
The way in which Kamala is taking the momentum away from the post shooting narrative and sympathy towards Trump is going to be key imo. Trump was focused on Biden but now they have to turn around and attack Kamala and unless they suddenly become competent its tough.
How do you turn around from smol bean little "political violence" victim back towards a straight hateful misogynistic chud? The Trump campaign will try to go on the offensive and this will abandon much of the good will and civility cult points he earned post shooting.
2- Trump isn't competent, he is disliked, he in fact did not leave a better economy. His only edge was a rethorical advantage against Biden on things Americans don't usualy care that much e.g foreign policy. I'm sorry to say but it wont take much for her to wash away most of her image from the Biden admin, all it takes is some empty promises towards de-escalating Gaza.
Keep in mind that on this issue Biden offered literaly nothing. he kept talking about NATO as if anyone gives a shit. Ukraine? Would've helped without the Putin gaffe but even then its an embarrassing lost war with nothing to show for except a massive budget. The point is normal average lib doesn't care about Ukraine beyond rethorical Putler bad shit.
I don't expect her to drop Ukraine/NATO talking points, but it would be a huge mistake to keep this the central point like Biden wanted so there is a decent chance she moves away from being obsessed with NATO like Biden is.
3- Hillary won the popular vote and we all acknowledge it was her own fault rather than any competent Trump strategy, we may see something similar where Kamala is the favorite but loses because of [insert your favorite conspiracy here].
Welcome to electorialism?
The only thing is you'll never convince anyone that she is as bad as Trump though and now she got plausible deniability even with Palestine considering she was "smart" enough to sidestep Biden on that peace proposal.
Its not much and she definitely sucks. But I keep repeating over and over. This election has become Trump vs anti-Trump. Of course the majority of anti-Trump voters will rejoice now that their candidate is slightly better than a literal walking corpse.
Don't underestimate how gross and pathetic the Trump campaign will become from now on. For all her faults its on Trump to not simply resort to calling her black and a woman as if thats bad because that is not going to be a winning strategy.
She is the cop and he is the convicted felon. Abortion is a major issue still so leaning into more mysogngy is only going to be worse. Trump already secured the white male boomer vote but this is not the deciding demographic at all.
Yes she was behind because most people do not take into account the upcoming "mood" swing from the media. Its literaly "who would you vote for today considering some of you don't even know she existed or what the VP is supposed to do in the first place".
Maybe she'll still lose but right now its a tough argument. Polls show Biden voters are more motivated to vote anti-Trump than pro-Biden and it was getting significantly worse(more anti-Trump) just in the last 2 months. With Kamala and Biden's endorsement she absolutely should have a better chance.
You know what let them cope, Russia also awarded the pilot after downing that reaper drone too lol.
What do you even mean though. The "panic" only exists exactly because people "online" know that Biden is such a shit candidate that this is a much closer election than it should be. The majority of people went from voting for Biden to just admitting they're voting against Trump.
Any other competent Dem would have read the room and ditched the Israel shit even it was clear 6 months ago that the majority of Americans favor a ceasefire.
There was no need for that whole student protest shit which was very politically damaging. But then people back then would also say "hey don't bother because most people IRL are fascists and will vote for Biden anyway" despite the landmark uncommitted vote campaign.
This is 2016 again and he is far worse than Hillary, she had an "excuse", she won the popular vote in fact. There is no poll that shows Biden winning anywhere close to the popular vote let alone the EC.
They have their dug-in solid 60+ demographic but their messaging about mass deportation and children's genitals is profoundly alienating to the average American, more alienating than most people could guess based on available data.
This is true but how does that compare to having a literal walking corpse embarrassing America on live TV multiple times in the past 6 months? The same Americans that believe Trump is a creep idiot(most people) are also the same people that believe Biden will either shit his pants or have a heart attack every time he goes on camera.
The polls are pretty clear which is the most pressing concern and besides, Genocide Joe isn't exactly giving out a compelling argument either. Remember even if we ignore Gaza the media spent 2023 pushing Bidenomics shit gaslighting everyone who can't afford food or rest that the economy is fine actualy and the US is "growing" only because Europe is being destroyed and the stock market is a megacorp mafia anyway.
I used to say last year the race was close but Biden had the advantage he could give out concessions. Time ran out and little genocidal bro still thinks bragging about NATO is the real concession lol. Even as the media tries to push Biden out they still have to say "oh but he was a great president". Nobody believes that, see his job approval.
Its Joever, they wont give concessions as I thought they would. Their plan is to gaslight everyone with Bidenomics while Biden tells you 20 times a day how great NATO has become.
AOC: Joe Biden actually stomps among old people, who are hard for Democrats to win. Those are not people who are on Twitter but they vote more than any other bracket. You can't assume those voters will transfer to any other candidate.
I'm sorry but she is a complete idiot.
Most Biden voters are just anti-Trump It is getting worse most people who were coping with themselves saying they support Biden are now admitting they just don't like Trump. This is insane, this is the worst possible scenario.
But no acshually Biden is really popular with the right voting group. Not only go fuck yourself, this is just the 12th different version of the same copium shit.
One of the latest polls Biden is only 41 v 58% voting intention for people over 65.
Transfer what vote from old conservative dipshits? You dumbass he already doesn't have any.
This idea that there are Biden or bust voters out there is absolutely insane period. There is no world in which a 60yo boomer democrat is going "uhm acshualy even though my boy Biden endorsed his literal VP I wont vote for her because turns out I actualy prefer the other racist fascist!".
The rest is some garbage nonsense pearl clutching about possible litigation even though Biden is not the nominee yet.
Also how can the party that simultaneously say democracy is at stake Trump must not win will turn around and say "uhm acshualy idk about the legality of substituting our shit candidate that is not even our candidate yet, better not bother I guess. Anyway democracy is at stake if you don't vote!"
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