Since Belgian GP, it is now mathematically impossible for Verstappen to drop below 11th place
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https://shooktea.github.io/F1StandingsSimulator/#/f1/2023/16
That statement is backwards, 11th place is the furthest back that could catch Max. Max can not finish 11th there are not enough points left for 10 drivers to jump him. There are 10 races left and each race has 102 pts available and 3 sprint races with 36 pts, if 2 - 11 got those points evenly Max would still be champ. The furthest Max could drop is 5th.
That is absolutely right and I must improve how I calculate lowest possible position, because currently to do so I add maximum possible points one driver can get to every single driver except the one checked (which doesn’t make sense - I’m setting everyone on 1st place and Max on 11th xD)
I thought about how to do it more properly and the only option I found was to somehow calculate every possible combination, which is also insane from computational point of view.
Your comment gave another idea though - to sum possible points from incoming seasons (102 for race and 36 for sprint) and distribute them between lower places, from top to bottom, until someone jumps over you (so giving 126 points for Perez, then 166 to Alonso, etc). That should give me the correct results as explained by you.
Thanks!
FYI I think I managed to improve calculations of worst possible outcome and the results are looking waaay nicer (no more boring symmetry).
Thanks again!