https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html
The president’s inadequate performance in the debate made it clear he is not the man he was four years ago.
Yeah, I'm suspicious that at least Warren isn't on that list given her performance in the last primary was higher than several of the folks there. Bernie could be more polarizing (and is also quite old, if that's the problem) but obviously I'd be interested in his statistics as well.
Yeah, be cautious of anyone that sources polls with screenshots and not links.
I looked into Data for Progress, and it seems like they sold out last election.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/us/politics/data-for-progress-democrats.html
Party establishment started favoring them because they were good at coming up with polls that led to donations. So they've moved away from pushing for progress, and now push polls that defend the establishment.
A few years ago the founder was forced out of the company because it came to light he was betting on elections and using the company to try and effect the races so he'd win his bets...
And trying to recruit his employees for a straw donor scheme...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_McElwee#Data_for_Progress
So them putting out a shady poll like this, is actually an improvement for the company over what they were doing in 2022...
My initial post was saying to wait for high quality polling data and stop having panic attacks over one debate. The downside risk to Biden dropping out is real and everyone is acting like it’ll be a simple situation where everyone unites around their preferred candidate.
I didn’t vote for Biden in any primary but I’m not convinced a convention where they nominate (for instance) Harris, Newsom, or Whitmer would be anything but chaos that angered at least some constituencies and led to more Republicans winning up and down the ballot. Everyone is assuming things at this point and I’m saying “Wait to see if this even moves the polls.”
high quality polling data
What does that have to do with Data for Progress?
Even before they sold out, the whole point was cheap and fast, not high quality...
I meant that’s all we have at the moment so be patient and give it a week. I know Data for Progress is a bit of a mess. The last CEO got run off for essentially insider trading on prediction markets.