https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66229065
A series of records on temperature, ocean heat, and Antarctic sea ice are "unprecedented", some scientists say.
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If a system is poorly understood, then by definition it cannot be factored into predictions. When we say something is "unlikely" we mean "it is unlikely based on what we understand". I don't think it's very useful to ask, "Well, is it unlikely based on what we don't understand?", because that's not a question that can be answered.
The possibility of a tipping point cascade is generally without dispute as far as I know. It is likely based on what we do understand, however predicting how likely exactly, the severity of consequences, and the interaction with positive and negative feedback loops from other climate systems is not well understood.
The consensus seems to be that it's virtually certain with a warming of 4-5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Ignoring an existential risk like that because one lacks understanding doesn't seem wise.
Is a catastrophic, world-ending feedback loop likely based on what we understand? The IPCC reports paint a grim future, but I don't believe any has suggested that it's likely the entire Earth will be rendered completely uninhabitable to human life.