French journalists were able to get access to a confidential report from the French Defense Dpt. on the war.
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Guerre en Ukraine : de la prudence à l'affolement… Ce que cache le virage de Macron
https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron
Quelle mouche a piqué le président au moment d'envisager l'envoi de troupes en Ukraine ? Plusieurs rapports confidentiels défense expliquent « l’affolement » de l’Élysée, où les chefs de partis sont invités ce jeudi 7 mars à évoquer la question. Sur le front, les Russes sont en position de force. Fallait-il pour autant, face à Poutine, brandir une menace intenable ?
TLDR
- Western planners underestimated Russian strength and assumed their defense lines would collapse upon breach.
- Ukrainian brigade training was insufficient, too administrative, and short.
- Western equipment is considered less efficient than Soviet due to maintenance issues and degraded mode capabilities.
- The report emphasizes Russian superiority in defensive tactics with heavy machinery for fortification.
- The Russian army is recognized as the technical reference for defensive strategies.
- Western press reported Moscow's lack of interest in soldiers' lives, but confidential reports suggest otherwise.
- Russians practice "Maskirovka," appearing weak to hide their true strength.
- A stampede occurred during the loss of Avdiivka on February 17.
- Macron presented other reports to political opponents, challenging Western press's underestimation of Russian capabilities.
- Ukrainian general staff lacks a critical mass of ground forces capable of breaking through Russian defensive lines.
- The most serious error is seeking exclusively military solutions to end hostilities.
- A French officer concludes that Ukraine cannot win the war militarily due to insufficient forces.
- Ukrainian soldiers' fighting spirit is affected by ongoing conflict.
- Zelensky needs 35,000 men per month but isn't recruiting half of them while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers each month.
- The Ukrainian failure at Avdiivka demonstrates that Kiev is not capable of re-establishing the collapsing front with an "elite" brigade's dispatch.